NZD/USD: positioning -29.7%

On 2026-08-12, NZD/USD closed at 0.588, down 0.14% on the day. It trades at 58.1% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 59.39 is in the 77th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +1.14% in the 64th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -29.7% of open interest, at 0% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.5844 / 0.57867 / 0.58285, with price +0.62% / +1.61% / +0.88% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 3.50% below the high and 5.30% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.457% daily, in the 12th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00438 (43.8 pips), 0.74% of price. It has returned +0.06% over 5 days and +0.80% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58800  -0.139%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -29.7% (near bottom of own 136w range (band bottoms at -29.7%))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-12, prior 2026-08-11)
    close       0.58800
    change      -0.00082  (-0.139%, -8.2 pips)
    gap         -0.00087  (-8.7 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-12)
    range       0.00288  (28.8 pips)
    close pos   79.9% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-12)
     20d MA     0.58440   price above by +0.62%
     50d MA     0.57867   price above by +1.61%
    200d MA     0.58285   price above by +0.88%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 200d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-12)
    20d stdev   0.457% daily ≈ 7.2% annualized (×√252)   (12th pct of own history, since 2003 (5850 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.77× (0.457% vs 0.593% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-12)
    ATR(14)    0.00438  (43.8 pips)
    ATR%        0.74%   (10th pct of own history, since 2003 (5856 obs))
    range/ATR   65.8%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-12)
    high        0.60933   (-3.50% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+5.30% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-12)
    RSI(14)     59.39   (77th pct of own history, since 2003 (5856 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-12)
     5d return  +0.06%
    20d return  +1.14%
    60d return  +0.80%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.9269%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.8375%
    tightening-2015  0.6352%
    ZIRP-2019        0.6132%
    tightening-2022  0.7299%
    easing-2024      0.5932%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-04)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-11 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -30,290 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -29.7%
    net%OI range -29.7% … +28.5% (own 136w)
    w/w change  -263
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (21 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-12, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (35 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-12)
    vs DXY      -0.76
    vs S&P 500  +0.51
    vs DXY beta -1.02 (26w)