FX Daily — 2026-08-12

FX daily report for reference date 2026-08-12. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT (as of 2026-08-12, config order)
closeday %RSI (pct)52wk20d ret (pct)pos net%OI (band)
EUR/USD1.15437-0.02%58.7 (76th)31.3%+1.04% (68th)-6.5% (10% of range)
GBP/USD1.35099-0.01%59.6 (79th)59.7%+0.84% (64th)+15.5% (60% of range)
USD/JPY159.265+0.07%41.9 (23rd)73.5%-1.80% (22nd)-14.5% (43% of range)
USD/CHF0.81102+0.15%52.2 (60th)83.6%+0.24% (56th)-9.2% (52% of range)
AUD/USD0.7064+0.12%58.7 (75th)75.2%+1.25% (66th)+16.9% (79% of range)
USD/CAD1.3919-0.10%32.1 (6th)57.0%-0.94% (32nd)-27.9% (16% of range)
NZD/USD0.588-0.14%59.4 (77th)58.1%+1.14% (64th)-29.7% (0% of range)
EUR/GBP0.85445-0.01%45.1 (35th)19.3%+0.20% (56th)+1.9% (100% of range)
EUR/HUF364.329+0.27%60.4 (81st)31.0%+1.68% (81st)
USD/HUF315.777+0.24%53.9 (63rd)33.6%+0.72% (59th)
GBP/HUF426.46+0.23%59.7 (80th)39.9%+1.50% (70th)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  USD/JPY  crossed above 200d MA (2nd consecutive close above)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  NZD/USD  positioning net%OI -29.7%    (near bottom of own 136w range (band bottoms at -29.7%)) · surprise 100
  EUR/GBP  positioning net%OI +1.9%     (near top of own 136w range (band tops at +1.9%)) · surprise 100
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.232% daily         (4th pct, since 2003 (5934 obs)) · surprise  92
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-08-12)
  level       14.55
  change      -0.73  (-4.8%)  (prior 2026-08-11)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  5th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-08-12)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       100.010
  change      +0.190  (+0.19%)  (prior 2026-08-11)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  83rd pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     99.181   price above by +0.84%
DOLLAR CROWDING  (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude)
  6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week
  EUR/USD  -0.84
  NZD/USD  -0.76
  GBP/USD  -0.75
  USD/JPY  +0.69
  USD/CHF  +0.69
  USD/HUF  +0.69
  EUR/HUF  +0.50
  AUD/USD  -0.47
  GBP/HUF  +0.44
  USD/CAD  +0.39
  EUR/GBP  -0.02
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-08-12)
  level       7748.50
  change      +20.30  (+0.26%)  (prior 2026-08-11)
  1yr range   6343.72 … 7757.64 (252d)
  1yr pctile  99th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     7065.31   price above by +9.67%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-08-12)
  >> BoC   2026-09-02  (21 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct)
  >> RBNZ  2026-09-02  (21 days)   · cross-link: NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 136w range (band bottoms at -29.7%))
  >> ECB   2026-09-10  (29 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI near top of own 136w range (band tops at +1.9%))
  >> Fed   2026-09-16  (35 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct), NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 136w range (band bottoms at -29.7%))
  >> BoE   2026-09-17  (36 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI near top of own 136w range (band tops at +1.9%))