USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.232% daily (4th pct)

On 2026-08-12, USD/CAD closed at 1.3919, down 0.10% on the day. It trades at 57.0% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 32.13 is in the 6th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -0.94% in the 32nd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -27.9% of open interest, at 16% of its own two-year positioning range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.40378 / 1.40763 / 1.38553, with price -0.85% / -1.12% / +0.46% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 2.31% below the high and 3.23% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.232% daily, in the 4th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00596 (59.6 pips), 0.43% of price. It has returned -1.04% over 5 days and +1.25% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.39190  -0.105%   · 20d vol 0.232% daily (4th pct, since 2003 (5934 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals align USD/CAD down: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-12, prior 2026-08-11)
    close       1.39190
    change      -0.00146  (-0.105%, -14.6 pips)
    gap         -0.00130  (-13.0 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-12)
    range       0.00294  (29.4 pips)
    close pos   37.1% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-12)
     20d MA     1.40378   price below by -0.85%
     50d MA     1.40763   price below by -1.12%
    200d MA     1.38553   price above by +0.46%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 50d > 20d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-12)
    20d stdev   0.232% daily ≈ 3.7% annualized (×√252)   (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5934 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.71× (0.232% vs 0.326% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-12)
    ATR(14)    0.00596  (59.6 pips)
    ATR%        0.43%   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5940 obs))
    range/ATR   49.3%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-12)
    high        1.42478   (-2.31% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+3.23% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-12)
    RSI(14)     32.13   (6th pct of own history, since 2003 (5940 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-12)
     5d return  -1.04%
    20d return  -0.94%
    60d return  +1.25%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.6422%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5827%
    tightening-2015  0.4850%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4557%
    tightening-2022  0.4399%
    easing-2024      0.3263%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-04)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-11 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -101,748 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -27.9%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 136w)
    w/w change  +747
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-12, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (35 days)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-08-12, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-09-02  (21 days)
    differential    +1.38%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-12)
    vs DXY      +0.39
    vs S&P 500  -0.32
    vs DXY beta +0.27 (26w)