NZD/USD: positioning -34.6%

On 2026-08-14, NZD/USD closed at 0.58545, down 0.11% on the day. It trades at 53.1% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 54.05 is in the 62nd percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +0.22% in the 52nd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -34.6% of open interest, at 0% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.58453 / 0.57861 / 0.58303, with price +0.16% / +1.18% / +0.41% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 3.92% below the high and 4.84% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.446% daily, in the 10th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00448 (44.8 pips), 0.76% of price. It has returned -0.24% over 5 days and -0.41% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58545  -0.113%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -34.6% (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%))
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-14, prior 2026-08-13)
    close       0.58545
    change      -0.00066  (-0.113%, -6.6 pips)
    gap         -0.00070  (-7.0 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-14)
    range       0.00450  (45.0 pips)
    close pos   0.9% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-14)
     20d MA     0.58453   price above by +0.16%
     50d MA     0.57861   price above by +1.18%
    200d MA     0.58303   price above by +0.41%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 200d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-14)
    20d stdev   0.446% daily ≈ 7.1% annualized (×√252)   (10th pct of own history, since 2003 (5852 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.75× (0.446% vs 0.592% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-14)
    ATR(14)    0.00448  (44.8 pips)
    ATR%        0.76%   (11th pct of own history, since 2003 (5858 obs))
    range/ATR   100.5%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-14)
    high        0.60933   (-3.92% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+4.84% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-14)
    RSI(14)     54.05   (62nd pct of own history, since 2003 (5858 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-14)
     5d return  -0.24%
    20d return  +0.22%
    60d return  -0.41%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.93%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.84%
    tightening-2015  0.64%
    ZIRP-2019        0.61%
    tightening-2022  0.73%
    easing-2024      0.59%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-11)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-18 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -33,461 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -34.6%
    net%OI range -34.6% … +28.5% (own 137w)
    w/w change  -3,171
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (19 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-13, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (33 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-14)
    vs DXY      -0.76
    vs S&P 500  +0.52
    vs DXY beta -1.03 (26w)