FX daily report for reference date 2026-08-14. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.
| close | day % | RSI (pct) | 52wk | 20d ret (pct) | pos net%OI (band) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.15354 | +0.05% | 57.1 (72nd) | 30.1% | +0.79% (64th) | -7.6% (3% of range) |
| GBP/USD | 1.34907 | -0.05% | 57.2 (72nd) | 57.4% | +0.09% (50th) | +15.9% (62% of range) |
| USD/JPY | 159.426 | +0.06% | 43.2 (26th) | 74.4% | -1.82% (22nd) | -13.5% (45% of range) |
| USD/CHF | 0.81412 | +0.15% | 56.1 (71st) | 89.0% | +0.72% (64th) | -10.4% (49% of range) |
| AUD/USD | 0.70637 | -0.00% | 58.6 (75th) | 75.0% | +0.92% (62nd) | +18.2% (82% of range) |
| USD/CAD | 1.39271 | -0.10% | 34.8 (10th) | 58.0% | -0.78% (35th) | -25.3% (26% of range) |
| NZD/USD | 0.58545 | -0.11% | 54.0 (62nd) | 53.1% | +0.22% (52nd) | -34.6% (0% of range) |
| EUR/GBP | 0.85493 | +0.12% | 47.3 (43rd) | 20.5% | +0.68% (67th) | +0.4% (97% of range) |
| EUR/HUF | 362.938 | -0.05% | 56.1 (70th) | 28.3% | +0.34% (57th) | |
| USD/HUF | 314.573 | -0.24% | 50.7 (53rd) | 31.0% | -0.35% (46th) | |
| GBP/HUF | 424.49 | -0.25% | 55.2 (66th) | 36.6% | -0.34% (44th) |
NOTABLE TODAY (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal) NZD/USD positioning net%OI -34.6% (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%)) · surprise 100 EUR/GBP 20d vol 0.146% daily (0th pct, since 1999 (7162 obs)) · surprise 100 EUR/USD positioning net%OI -7.6% (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)) · surprise 94 USD/CAD 20d vol 0.236% daily (5th pct, since 2003 (5936 obs)) · surprise 90
market risk (VIX) (as of 2026-08-14) level 14.25 change -0.38 (-2.6%) (prior 2026-08-13) 1yr range 13.47 … 31.05 (252d) 1yr pctile 3rd pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY) (as of 2026-08-14) (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below) level 99.670 change -0.290 (-0.29%) (prior 2026-08-13) 1yr range 96.220 … 101.610 (252d) 1yr pctile 74th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 99.190 price above by +0.48%
DOLLAR CROWDING (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude) 6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week EUR/USD -0.84 GBP/USD -0.77 NZD/USD -0.76 USD/CHF +0.71 USD/HUF +0.69 USD/JPY +0.69 EUR/HUF +0.50 AUD/USD -0.48 GBP/HUF +0.44 USD/CAD +0.42 EUR/GBP -0.01
equity market (S&P 500) (as of 2026-08-14) level 7785.76 change -13.23 (-0.17%) (prior 2026-08-13) 1yr range 6343.72 … 7798.99 (252d) 1yr pctile 99th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 7074.90 price above by +10.05%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) === (days remaining from reference date 2026-08-14) >> BoC 2026-09-02 (19 days) · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 5th pct) >> RBNZ 2026-09-02 (19 days) · cross-link: NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%)) >> ECB 2026-09-10 (27 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), EUR/GBP (20d vol 0th pct) >> Fed 2026-09-16 (33 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), USD/CAD (20d vol 5th pct), NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%)) >> BoE 2026-09-17 (34 days) · cross-link: EUR/GBP (20d vol 0th pct)