USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.236% daily (5th pct)

On 2026-08-14, USD/CAD closed at 1.39271, down 0.10% on the day. It trades at 58.0% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 34.82 is in the 10th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -0.78% in the 35th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -25.3% of open interest, at 26% of its own two-year positioning range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.40275 / 1.40777 / 1.38539, with price -0.72% / -1.07% / +0.53% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 2.25% below the high and 3.29% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.236% daily, in the 5th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00593 (59.3 pips), 0.43% of price. It has returned -0.62% over 5 days and +1.10% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.39271  -0.097%   · 20d vol 0.236% daily (5th pct, since 2003 (5936 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals align USD/CAD down: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-14, prior 2026-08-13)
    close       1.39271
    change      -0.00135  (-0.097%, -13.5 pips)
    gap         -0.00135  (-13.5 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-14)
    range       0.00641  (64.1 pips)
    close pos   95.5% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-14)
     20d MA     1.40275   price below by -0.72%
     50d MA     1.40777   price below by -1.07%
    200d MA     1.38539   price above by +0.53%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 50d > 20d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-14)
    20d stdev   0.236% daily ≈ 3.7% annualized (×√252)   (5th pct of own history, since 2003 (5936 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.72× (0.236% vs 0.326% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-14)
    ATR(14)    0.00593  (59.3 pips)
    ATR%        0.43%   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5942 obs))
    range/ATR   108.2%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-14)
    high        1.42478   (-2.25% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+3.29% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-14)
    RSI(14)     34.82   (10th pct of own history, since 2003 (5942 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-14)
     5d return  -0.62%
    20d return  -0.78%
    60d return  +1.10%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.64%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.58%
    tightening-2015  0.48%
    ZIRP-2019        0.46%
    tightening-2022  0.44%
    easing-2024      0.33%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-11)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-18 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -92,005 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -25.3%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 137w)
    w/w change  +9,743
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-13, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (33 days)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-08-13, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-09-02  (19 days)
    differential    +1.38%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-14)
    vs DXY      +0.42
    vs S&P 500  -0.34
    vs DXY beta +0.29 (26w)