USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.236% daily (5th pct)

On 2026-08-13, USD/CAD closed at 1.39406, up 0.15% on the day. It trades at 59.8% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 36.23 is in the 13th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -0.69% in the 36th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -27.9% of open interest, at 16% of its own two-year positioning range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.4033 / 1.40773 / 1.38547, with price -0.66% / -0.97% / +0.62% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 2.16% below the high and 3.39% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.236% daily, in the 5th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00581 (58.1 pips), 0.42% of price. It has returned -0.50% over 5 days and +1.40% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.39406  +0.155%   · 20d vol 0.236% daily (5th pct, since 2003 (5935 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — daily % up / 20d return down
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-13, prior 2026-08-12)
    close       1.39406
    change      +0.00216  (+0.155%, +21.6 pips)
    gap         +0.00218  (+21.8 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-13)
    range       0.00276  (27.6 pips)
    close pos   39.5% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-13)
     20d MA     1.40330   price below by -0.66%
     50d MA     1.40773   price below by -0.97%
    200d MA     1.38547   price above by +0.62%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 50d > 20d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-13)
    20d stdev   0.236% daily ≈ 3.7% annualized (×√252)   (5th pct of own history, since 2003 (5935 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.72× (0.236% vs 0.326% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-13)
    ATR(14)    0.00581  (58.1 pips)
    ATR%        0.42%   (2nd pct of own history, since 2003 (5941 obs))
    range/ATR   47.5%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-13)
    high        1.42478   (-2.16% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+3.39% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-13)
    RSI(14)     36.23   (13th pct of own history, since 2003 (5941 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-13)
     5d return  -0.50%
    20d return  -0.69%
    60d return  +1.40%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.6422%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5827%
    tightening-2015  0.4850%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4557%
    tightening-2022  0.4399%
    easing-2024      0.3261%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-04)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-11 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -101,748 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -27.9%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 136w)
    w/w change  +747
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-13, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (34 days)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-08-13, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-09-02  (20 days)
    differential    +1.38%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-13)
    vs DXY      +0.41
    vs S&P 500  -0.35
    vs DXY beta +0.28 (26w)