EUR/USD: positioning -7.6%

On 2026-08-19, EUR/USD closed at 1.15794, down 0.03% on the day. It trades at 36.4% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 62.17 is in the 84th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +1.54% in the 76th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -7.6% of open interest, at 3% of its own two-year positioning range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.15022 / 1.1469 / 1.16286, with price +0.67% / +0.96% / -0.42% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.13254–1.20236; it closed 3.69% below the high and 2.24% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.266% daily, in the 6th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00546 (54.6 pips), 0.47% of price. It has returned +0.31% over 5 days and -0.49% over 60 days.

=== EUR/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.15794  -0.029%   · positioning net%OI -7.6% (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%))
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-19, prior 2026-08-18)
    close       1.15794
    change      -0.00034  (-0.029%, -3.4 pips)
    gap         -0.00059  (-5.9 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-19)
    range       0.01058  (105.8 pips)
    close pos   6.7% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-19)
     20d MA     1.15022   price above by +0.67%
     50d MA     1.14690   price above by +0.96%
    200d MA     1.16286   price below by -0.42%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 200d > 20d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-19)
    20d stdev   0.266% daily ≈ 4.2% annualized (×√252)   (6th pct of own history, since 2003 (5861 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.62× (0.266% vs 0.427% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-19)
    ATR(14)    0.00546  (54.6 pips)
    ATR%        0.47%   (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5867 obs))
    range/ATR   193.8%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-19)
    high        1.20236   (-3.69% from high)
    low         1.13254   (+2.24% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-19)
    RSI(14)     62.17   (84th pct of own history, since 2003 (5867 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-19)
     5d return  +0.31%
    20d return  +1.54%
    60d return  -0.49%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       1.05%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.66%
    tightening-2015  0.49%
    ZIRP-2019        0.39%
    tightening-2022  0.55%
    easing-2024      0.43%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-11)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-18 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -60,600 contracts (net short EUR)
    net % OI    -7.6%
    net%OI range -8.0% … +6.5% (own 137w)
    w/w change  -8,395
  rate differential (EUR–USD policy)
    EUR (ECB_DFR)         2.25%  (set 2026-06-17, deposit-facility floor)
    next ECB              2026-09-10  (22 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-18, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (28 days)
    differential    -1.38%  (base−quote)
  10Y yield spread (US–EU)
    US (DGS10)      4.71%  (as of 2026-08-18)
    EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 3.29%  (as of 2026-08-18)
    spread          +1.42%
  2Y yield spread (US–EU)
    US (DGS2)       4.19%  (as of 2026-08-18)
    EU (euro-area AAA 2Y) 2.78%  (as of 2026-08-18)
    spread          +1.41%
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-19)
    vs DXY      -0.84
    vs S&P 500  +0.54
    vs DXY beta -0.68 (26w)