FX daily report for reference date 2026-08-19. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.
| close | day % | RSI (pct) | 52wk | 20d ret (pct) | pos net%OI (band) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.15794 | -0.03% | 62.2 (84th) | 36.4% | +1.54% (76th) | -7.6% (3% of range) |
| GBP/USD | 1.35367 | -0.10% | 60.5 (81st) | 62.9% | +1.18% (69th) | +15.9% (62% of range) |
| USD/JPY | 159.55 | +0.13% | 44.9 (31st) | 75.1% | -2.23% (18th) | -13.5% (45% of range) |
| USD/CHF | 0.81224 | +0.20% | 53.0 (62nd) | 85.7% | -0.02% (52nd) | -10.4% (49% of range) |
| AUD/USD | 0.70815 | -0.38% | 58.9 (76th) | 77.1% | +1.15% (65th) | +18.2% (82% of range) |
| USD/CAD | 1.38979 | +0.20% | 35.1 (11th) | 54.2% | -1.47% (23rd) | -25.3% (26% of range) |
| NZD/USD | 0.58729 | -0.56% | 55.1 (65th) | 56.7% | +0.80% (60th) | -34.6% (0% of range) |
| EUR/GBP | 0.85516 | +0.05% | 48.6 (47th) | 21.0% | +0.34% (59th) | +0.4% (97% of range) |
| EUR/HUF | 365.217 | +0.55% | 61.1 (83rd) | 32.8% | +0.80% (67th) | |
| USD/HUF | 315.589 | +0.57% | 53.5 (62nd) | 33.2% | -0.53% (44th) | |
| GBP/HUF | 427.12 | +0.44% | 59.8 (80th) | 41.0% | +0.65% (58th) |
CHANGES (vs prior session) USD/CAD RSI 35.1 — crossed above 30 (oversold boundary)
NOTABLE TODAY (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal) NZD/USD positioning net%OI -34.6% (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%)) · surprise 100 EUR/GBP 20d vol 0.134% daily (0th pct, since 1999 (7165 obs)) · surprise 100 EUR/USD positioning net%OI -7.6% (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)) · surprise 94 USD/CAD 20d vol 0.226% daily (4th pct, since 2003 (5939 obs)) · surprise 92
market risk (VIX) (as of 2026-08-19) level 14.89 change -0.95 (-6.0%) (prior 2026-08-18) 1yr range 13.47 … 31.05 (252d) 1yr pctile 8th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY) (as of 2026-08-19) (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below) level 98.799 change -0.851 (-0.85%) (prior 2026-08-18) 1yr range 96.220 … 101.610 (252d) 1yr pctile 45th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 99.194 price below by -0.40%
DOLLAR CROWDING (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude) 6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week EUR/USD -0.84 GBP/USD -0.75 NZD/USD -0.75 USD/CHF +0.70 USD/HUF +0.65 USD/JPY +0.65 AUD/USD -0.47 EUR/HUF +0.46 GBP/HUF +0.42 USD/CAD +0.41 EUR/GBP -0.06
equity market (S&P 500) (as of 2026-08-19) level 7707.98 change +16.22 (+0.21%) (prior 2026-08-18) 1yr range 6343.72 … 7798.99 (252d) 1yr pctile 96th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 7087.61 price above by +8.75%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) === (days remaining from reference date 2026-08-19) >> BoC 2026-09-02 (14 days) · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct) >> RBNZ 2026-09-02 (14 days) · cross-link: NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%)) >> ECB 2026-09-10 (22 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), EUR/GBP (20d vol 0th pct) >> Fed 2026-09-16 (28 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct), NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%)) >> BoE 2026-09-17 (29 days) · cross-link: EUR/GBP (20d vol 0th pct)