NZD/USD: positioning -34.6%

On 2026-08-19, NZD/USD closed at 0.58729, down 0.56% on the day. It trades at 56.7% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 55.06 is in the 65th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +0.80% in the 60th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -34.6% of open interest, at 0% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.58528 / 0.57914 / 0.5834, with price +0.34% / +1.41% / +0.67% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 3.62% below the high and 5.17% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.473% daily, in the 15th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00481 (48.1 pips), 0.82% of price. It has returned -0.12% over 5 days and +0.52% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58729  -0.559%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -34.6% (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-19, prior 2026-08-18)
    close       0.58729
    change      -0.00330  (-0.559%, -33.0 pips)
    gap         -0.00338  (-33.8 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-19)
    range       0.00767  (76.7 pips)
    close pos   14.3% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-19)
     20d MA     0.58528   price above by +0.34%
     50d MA     0.57914   price above by +1.41%
    200d MA     0.58340   price above by +0.67%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 200d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-19)
    20d stdev   0.473% daily ≈ 7.5% annualized (×√252)   (15th pct of own history, since 2003 (5855 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.80× (0.473% vs 0.592% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-19)
    ATR(14)    0.00481  (48.1 pips)
    ATR%        0.82%   (16th pct of own history, since 2003 (5861 obs))
    range/ATR   159.5%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-19)
    high        0.60933   (-3.62% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+5.17% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-19)
    RSI(14)     55.06   (65th pct of own history, since 2003 (5861 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-19)
     5d return  -0.12%
    20d return  +0.80%
    60d return  +0.52%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.93%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.84%
    tightening-2015  0.64%
    ZIRP-2019        0.61%
    tightening-2022  0.73%
    easing-2024      0.59%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-11)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-18 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -33,461 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -34.6%
    net%OI range -34.6% … +28.5% (own 137w)
    w/w change  -3,171
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (14 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-18, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (28 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-19)
    vs DXY      -0.75
    vs S&P 500  +0.52
    vs DXY beta -0.99 (26w)