EUR/GBP: positioning +1.5%

On 2026-08-21, EUR/GBP closed at 0.85672, down 0.18% on the day. It trades at 25.0% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 53.15 is in the 63rd percentile of its history since 1999, and its 20-day return of +0.25% in the 57th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net +1.5% of open interest, at 99% of its own two-year positioning range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.85589 / 0.85679 / 0.86655, with price +0.10% / -0.01% / -1.13% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.8468–0.88653; it closed 3.36% below the high and 1.17% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.157% daily, in the 1st percentile of its history since 1999. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.0024 (24 pips), 0.28% of price. It has returned +0.21% over 5 days and -1.12% over 60 days.

=== EUR/GBP  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.85672  -0.182%   · positioning net%OI +1.5% (near top of own 138w range (band tops at +1.9%))
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-21, prior 2026-08-20)
    close       0.85672
    change      -0.00156  (-0.182%, -15.6 pips)
    gap         -0.00162  (-16.2 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-21)
    range       0.00061  (6.1 pips)
    close pos   82.0% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-21)
     20d MA     0.85589   price above by +0.10%
     50d MA     0.85679   price below by -0.01%
    200d MA     0.86655   price below by -1.13%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-21)
    20d stdev   0.157% daily ≈ 2.5% annualized (×√252)   (1st pct of own history, since 1999 (7167 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.59× (0.157% vs 0.267% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-21)
    ATR(14)    0.00240  (24.0 pips)
    ATR%        0.28%   (0th pct of own history, since 1999 (7173 obs))
    range/ATR   25.4%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-21)
    high        0.88653   (-3.36% from high)
    low         0.84680   (+1.17% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-21)
    RSI(14)     53.15   (63rd pct of own history, since 1999 (7173 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-21)
     5d return  +0.21%
    20d return  +0.25%
    60d return  -1.12%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.50%   (from 1999-01-04)
    ZIRP-2009        0.55%
    tightening-2015  0.56%
    ZIRP-2019        0.47%
    tightening-2022  0.80%
    easing-2024      0.27%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-18)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-25 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         +614 contracts (net long EUR/GBP)
    source      standalone EUR/GBP cross future (own OI, not EUR/GBP majors)
    net % OI    +1.5%
    net%OI range -53.5% … +1.9% (own 138w)
    w/w change  +448
  rate differential (EUR–GBP policy)
    EUR (ECB_DFR)         2.25%  (set 2026-06-17, deposit-facility floor)
    next ECB              2026-09-10  (20 days)
    GBP (BOE_BANK_RATE)   3.75%  (as of 2026-08-20, official Bank Rate)
    next BoE              2026-09-17  (27 days)
    differential    -1.50%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-21)
    vs DXY      -0.08
    vs S&P 500  +0.23
    vs DXY beta -0.04 (26w)