FX daily report for reference date 2026-08-21. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.
| close | day % | RSI (pct) | 52wk | 20d ret (pct) | pos net%OI (band) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.16932 | +0.17% | 72.9 (98th) | 52.7% | +2.78% (89th) | -7.2% (5% of range) |
| GBP/USD | 1.36444 | +0.33% | 69.0 (95th) | 75.8% | +2.49% (87th) | +15.0% (59% of range) |
| USD/JPY | 158.951 | +0.43% | 42.7 (25th) | 71.7% | -2.98% (12th) | -17.8% (36% of range) |
| USD/CHF | 0.79948 | +0.21% | 38.8 (19th) | 63.5% | -2.13% (19th) | -8.0% (56% of range) |
| AUD/USD | 0.71362 | +0.16% | 66.0 (92nd) | 83.5% | +2.43% (81st) | +18.1% (81% of range) |
| USD/CAD | 1.37735 | -0.27% | 25.3 (2nd) | 37.9% | -2.21% (13th) | -24.7% (29% of range) |
| NZD/USD | 0.59687 | +0.55% | 67.0 (93rd) | 75.5% | +3.37% (86th) | -30.1% (7% of range) |
| EUR/GBP | 0.85672 | -0.18% | 53.1 (63rd) | 25.0% | +0.25% (57th) | +1.5% (99% of range) |
| EUR/HUF | 364.229 | +0.12% | 57.5 (74th) | 30.8% | +0.16% (53rd) | |
| USD/HUF | 311.82 | +0.03% | 44.5 (34th) | 25.1% | -2.54% (21st) | |
| GBP/HUF | 425.31 | +0.36% | 55.0 (66th) | 38.0% | -0.17% (47th) |
CHANGES (vs prior session) EUR/USD crossed above 200d MA (2nd consecutive close above) USD/CAD crossed below 200d MA (2nd consecutive close below)
NOTABLE TODAY (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal) EUR/GBP positioning net%OI +1.5% (near top of own 138w range (band tops at +1.9%)) · surprise 98 USD/CAD RSI(14) 25.34 (2nd pct, since 2003 (5947 obs)) · surprise 96 EUR/USD RSI(14) 72.94 (98th pct, since 2003 (5869 obs)) · surprise 96 GBP/USD RSI(14) 69.02 (95th pct, since 2003 (5877 obs)) · surprise 90
market risk (VIX) (as of 2026-08-21) level 15.80 change -0.21 (-1.3%) (prior 2026-08-20) 1yr range 13.47 … 31.05 (252d) 1yr pctile 22nd pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY) (as of 2026-08-21) (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below) level 98.754 change -0.146 (-0.15%) (prior 2026-08-20) 1yr range 96.220 … 101.610 (252d) 1yr pctile 42nd pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 99.184 price below by -0.43%
DOLLAR CROWDING (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude) 6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week EUR/USD -0.84 GBP/USD -0.77 NZD/USD -0.77 USD/CHF +0.70 USD/HUF +0.68 USD/JPY +0.67 AUD/USD -0.49 EUR/HUF +0.47 USD/CAD +0.45 GBP/HUF +0.43 EUR/GBP -0.08
equity market (S&P 500) (as of 2026-08-21) level 7674.37 change +33.21 (+0.43%) (prior 2026-08-20) 1yr range 6343.72 … 7798.99 (252d) 1yr pctile 95th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 7095.72 price above by +8.15%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) === (days remaining from reference date 2026-08-21) >> BoC 2026-09-02 (12 days) · cross-link: USD/CAD (RSI(14) 2nd pct) >> ECB 2026-09-10 (20 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (RSI(14) 98th pct), EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI near top of own 138w range (band tops at +1.9%)) >> Fed 2026-09-16 (26 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (RSI(14) 98th pct), GBP/USD (RSI(14) 95th pct), USD/CAD (RSI(14) 2nd pct) >> BoE 2026-09-17 (27 days) · cross-link: GBP/USD (RSI(14) 95th pct), EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI near top of own 138w range (band tops at +1.9%))