GBP/USD: RSI 69.02 (95th pct)

On 2026-08-21, GBP/USD closed at 1.36444, up 0.33% on the day. It trades at 75.8% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 69.02 is in the 95th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +2.49% in the 87th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net +15.0% of open interest, at 59% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.34715 / 1.33913 / 1.342, with price +1.28% / +1.89% / +1.67% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.30117–1.38468; it closed 1.46% below the high and 4.86% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.308% daily, in the 6th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.0073 (73 pips), 0.53% of price. It has returned +1.14% over 5 days and +1.49% over 60 days.

=== GBP/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.36444  +0.327%   · price > all MAs; RSI(14) 69.02 (95th pct, since 2003 (5877 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals align GBP/USD up: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-21, prior 2026-08-20)
    close       1.36444
    change      +0.00445  (+0.327%, +44.5 pips)
    gap         +0.00306  (+30.6 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-21)
    range       0.00195  (19.5 pips)
    close pos   71.3% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-21)
     20d MA     1.34715   price above by +1.28%
     50d MA     1.33913   price above by +1.89%
    200d MA     1.34200   price above by +1.67%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 200d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-21)
    20d stdev   0.308% daily ≈ 4.9% annualized (×√252)   (6th pct of own history, since 2003 (5871 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.71× (0.308% vs 0.430% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-21)
    ATR(14)    0.00730  (73.0 pips)
    ATR%        0.53%   (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5877 obs))
    range/ATR   26.7%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-21)
    high        1.38468   (-1.46% from high)
    low         1.30117   (+4.86% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-21)
    RSI(14)     69.02   (95th pct of own history, since 2003 (5877 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-21)
     5d return  +1.14%
    20d return  +2.49%
    60d return  +1.49%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.61%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.58%
    tightening-2015  0.64%
    ZIRP-2019        0.56%
    tightening-2022  0.65%
    easing-2024      0.43%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-18)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-25 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         +42,877 contracts (net long GBP)
    net % OI    +15.0%
    net%OI range -5.4% … +29.1% (own 138w)
    w/w change  +2,207
  rate differential (GBP–USD policy)
    GBP (BOE_BANK_RATE)   3.75%  (as of 2026-08-20, official Bank Rate)
    next BoE              2026-09-17  (27 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-20, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (26 days)
    differential    +0.12%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-21)
    vs DXY      -0.77
    vs S&P 500  +0.30
    vs DXY beta -0.69 (26w)