USD/CAD: RSI 25.34 (2nd pct)

On 2026-08-21, USD/CAD closed at 1.37735, down 0.27% on the day. It trades at 37.9% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 25.34 is in the 2nd percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -2.21% in the 13th percentile. RSI below 30 is conventionally termed oversold. Leveraged-money positioning is net -24.7% of open interest, at 29% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.39704 / 1.40667 / 1.38485, with price -1.41% / -2.08% / -0.54% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 3.33% below the high and 2.15% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.259% daily, in the 7th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00661 (66.1 pips), 0.48% of price. It has returned -1.10% over 5 days and -0.07% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.37735  -0.267%   · price < all MAs; RSI(14) 25.34 (2nd pct, since 2003 (5947 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals align USD/CAD down: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-21, prior 2026-08-20)
    close       1.37735
    change      -0.00369  (-0.267%, -36.9 pips)
    gap         -0.00277  (-27.7 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-21)
    range       0.00220  (22.0 pips)
    close pos   34.1% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-21)
     20d MA     1.39704   price below by -1.41%
     50d MA     1.40667   price below by -2.08%
    200d MA     1.38485   price below by -0.54%
    price < all MAs
    stack: 50d > 20d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-21)
    20d stdev   0.259% daily ≈ 4.1% annualized (×√252)   (7th pct of own history, since 2003 (5941 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.79× (0.259% vs 0.326% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-21)
    ATR(14)    0.00661  (66.1 pips)
    ATR%        0.48%   (8th pct of own history, since 2003 (5947 obs))
    range/ATR   33.3%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-21)
    high        1.42478   (-3.33% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+2.15% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-21)
    RSI(14)     25.34   (2nd pct of own history, since 2003 (5947 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-21)
     5d return  -1.10%
    20d return  -2.21%
    60d return  -0.07%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.64%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.58%
    tightening-2015  0.48%
    ZIRP-2019        0.46%
    tightening-2022  0.44%
    easing-2024      0.33%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-18)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-25 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -88,897 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -24.7%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 138w)
    w/w change  +3,108
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-20, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (26 days)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-08-20, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-09-02  (12 days)
    differential    +1.38%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-21)
    vs DXY      +0.45
    vs S&P 500  -0.25
    vs DXY beta +0.33 (26w)