FX Daily — 2026-10-14
FX daily report for reference date 2026-10-14. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.
| close | day % | RSI (pct) | 52wk | 20d ret (pct) | pos net%OI (band) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.12045 | +0.40% | 29.5 (4th) | 9.9% | -2.89% (9th) | -5.1% (20% of range) |
| GBP/USD | 1.32573 | +0.36% | 43.7 (30th) | 29.4% | -1.60% (23rd) | +4.7% (29% of range) |
| USD/JPY | 158.322 | -0.12% | 55.7 (64th) | 61.2% | +1.97% (76th) | -6.8% (61% of range) |
| USD/CHF | 0.8326 | -0.18% | 61.5 (84th) | 91.0% | +1.65% (78th) | -8.3% (55% of range) |
| AUD/USD | 0.69852 | +0.42% | 42.5 (27th) | 65.9% | -1.97% (22nd) | +16.5% (78% of range) |
| USD/CAD | 1.42168 | -0.45% | 60.7 (82nd) | 89.9% | +2.10% (85th) | -21.5% (42% of range) |
| NZD/USD | 0.56144 | +0.49% | 36.3 (13th) | 9.0% | -2.38% (21st) | -0.6% (55% of range) |
| EUR/GBP | 0.84488 | +0.01% | 23.3 (0th) | 5.0% | -1.34% (22nd) | +4.9% (100% of range) |
| EUR/HUF | 363.581 | -0.30% | 46.1 (38th) | 29.5% | -0.29% (43rd) | |
| USD/HUF | 324.603 | -0.67% | 58.4 (75th) | 52.4% | +2.64% (79th) | |
| GBP/HUF | 430.2 | -0.34% | 56.3 (70th) | 46.3% | +0.99% (63rd) |
CHANGES (vs prior session) EUR/USD new 52wk intraday low (1.11141) USD/CHF new 52wk intraday high (0.83948) USD/CAD new 52wk intraday high (1.42989) USD/CAD RSI 60.7 — crossed below 70 (overbought boundary) NZD/USD new 52wk intraday low (0.55670) NZD/USD RSI 36.3 — crossed above 30 (oversold boundary) EUR/GBP new 52wk intraday low (0.84268)
NOTABLE TODAY (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal) EUR/GBP positioning net%OI +4.9% (near top of own 145w range (band tops at +4.9%)) · surprise 100 NZD/USD 20d vol 0.374% daily (3rd pct, since 2003 (5895 obs)) · surprise 94 EUR/USD RSI(14) 29.48 (4th pct, since 2003 (5907 obs)) · surprise 92
market risk (VIX) (as of 2026-10-14) level 16.87 change +1.60 (+10.5%) (prior 2026-10-13) 1yr range 13.47 … 31.05 (252d) 1yr pctile 44th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY) (as of 2026-10-14) (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below) level 102.550 change +0.370 (+0.36%) (prior 2026-10-13) 1yr range 96.220 … 102.580 (252d) 1yr pctile 99th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 99.434 price above by +3.13%
DOLLAR CROWDING (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude) 6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week EUR/USD -0.79 GBP/USD -0.71 USD/CAD +0.68 USD/CHF +0.67 USD/JPY +0.66 NZD/USD -0.65 USD/HUF +0.58 AUD/USD -0.40 GBP/HUF +0.13 EUR/HUF +0.12 EUR/GBP +0.03
equity market (S&P 500) (as of 2026-10-14) level 7718.94 change -86.51 (-1.11%) (prior 2026-10-13) 1yr range 6343.72 … 7818.93 (252d) 1yr pctile 91st pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 7263.43 price above by +6.27%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) === (days remaining from reference date 2026-10-14) >> Fed 2026-10-28 (14 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (RSI(14) 4th pct), NZD/USD (20d vol 3rd pct) >> RBNZ 2026-10-28 (14 days) · cross-link: NZD/USD (20d vol 3rd pct) >> ECB 2026-10-29 (15 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (RSI(14) 4th pct), EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI near top of own 145w range (band tops at +4.9%)) >> BoE 2026-11-05 (22 days) · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI near top of own 145w range (band tops at +4.9%))