FX Daily — 2026-10-19
FX daily report for reference date 2026-10-19. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.
| close | day % | RSI (pct) | 52wk | 20d ret (pct) | pos net%OI (band) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.12255 | +0.11% | 34.7 (9th) | 12.2% | -2.21% (15th) | -7.8% (1% of range) |
| GBP/USD | 1.33356 | +0.47% | 53.0 (59th) | 38.8% | -0.40% (42nd) | +3.8% (27% of range) |
| USD/JPY | 157.806 | -0.21% | 50.4 (48th) | 54.9% | +0.48% (55th) | -9.0% (56% of range) |
| USD/CHF | 0.82375 | -0.48% | 46.2 (40th) | 79.5% | +0.13% (54th) | -10.9% (47% of range) |
| AUD/USD | 0.69721 | +0.78% | 43.9 (31st) | 64.3% | -2.10% (21st) | +14.9% (75% of range) |
| USD/CAD | 1.41192 | -0.52% | 48.2 (44th) | 77.9% | +0.89% (68th) | -23.3% (34% of range) |
| NZD/USD | 0.5659 | +0.67% | 47.1 (40th) | 17.5% | -1.12% (35th) | -9.3% (41% of range) |
| EUR/GBP | 0.84172 | -0.37% | 22.3 (0th) | 2.5% | -1.81% (15th) | +4.3% (99% of range) |
| EUR/HUF | 362.972 | -0.15% | 44.2 (32nd) | 28.4% | -0.33% (42nd) | |
| USD/HUF | 323.304 | -0.23% | 54.3 (64th) | 49.7% | +1.95% (73rd) | |
| GBP/HUF | 431.19 | +0.28% | 58.2 (76th) | 48.0% | +1.59% (71st) |
CHANGES (vs prior session) EUR/GBP new 52wk intraday low (0.84059)
NOTABLE TODAY (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal) EUR/GBP RSI(14) 22.32 (0th pct, since 1999 (7214 obs)) · surprise 100 EUR/USD positioning net%OI -7.8% (near bottom of own 146w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)) · surprise 98 USD/JPY 20d vol 0.279% daily (5th pct, since 1996 (7741 obs)) · surprise 90 NZD/USD 20d vol 0.401% daily (5th pct, since 2003 (5898 obs)) · surprise 90
market risk (VIX) (as of 2026-10-19) level 18.44 change -1.55 (-7.8%) (prior 2026-10-16) 1yr range 13.47 … 31.05 (252d) 1yr pctile 68th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY) (as of 2026-10-19) (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below) level 101.980 change +0.140 (+0.14%) (prior 2026-10-16) 1yr range 96.220 … 102.580 (252d) 1yr pctile 96th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 99.491 price above by +2.50%
DOLLAR CROWDING (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude) 6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week EUR/USD -0.79 GBP/USD -0.71 USD/CAD +0.68 USD/CHF +0.67 NZD/USD -0.65 USD/JPY +0.65 USD/HUF +0.58 AUD/USD -0.37 EUR/HUF +0.13 GBP/HUF +0.13 EUR/GBP +0.06
equity market (S&P 500) (as of 2026-10-19) level 7690.73 change +31.29 (+0.41%) (prior 2026-10-16) 1yr range 6343.72 … 7818.93 (252d) 1yr pctile 88th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 7275.66 price above by +5.70%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) === (days remaining from reference date 2026-10-19) >> Fed 2026-10-28 (9 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 146w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), USD/JPY (20d vol 5th pct), NZD/USD (20d vol 5th pct) >> RBNZ 2026-10-28 (9 days) · cross-link: NZD/USD (20d vol 5th pct) >> ECB 2026-10-29 (10 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 146w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 0th pct) >> BoJ 2026-10-30 (11 days) · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 5th pct) >> BoE 2026-11-05 (17 days) · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 0th pct)