GOOGL's current 20d return reading and what that signal has historically been followed by.
This page covers Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) — its current 20d return reading and the measured historical record of what GOOGL 20d return extremes were followed by.
How to read this. These figures are measured only on instruments currently in our coverage — a set of companies that survived. Signals that appear to have 'worked' on the downside are conditioned on these names having recovered; a company that fell and never came back would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.
All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.
Measured across GOOGL’s 20d return history from 2005 to 2026: 33 oversold episodes. Oversold readings were followed by -0.26% excess at 5 sessions and -1.29% by 20.
On this signal, GOOGL was most recently oversold on 2026-06-11.
Measured-outcome coverage runs through 2026-06-11 — the most recent episode with forward sessions scored; the current reading above is later, as of 2026-08-21.
When GOOGL was overbought / at a high extreme
GOOGL has only 18 past episodes on this signal — too few to characterize on their own. Showing the all-stocks pattern instead.
Across 2175 past episodes where a stock was overbought on this signal, the 2170 with a complete 20-session forward window lagged a stock’s own trailing drift by 0.20 percentage points on average (47% of those 2170 beat drift).
| horizon | excess vs own drift | beat-drift rate | episodes with complete horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -0.19% | 41% | 2175 |
| 5 sessions | -0.50% | 42% | 2173 |
| 20 sessions | -0.20% | 47% | 2170 |
When GOOGL was oversold / at a low extreme
Across 33 past episodes where GOOGL was oversold on this signal, the close 20 sessions later lagged GOOGL’s own trailing drift by 1.29 percentage points on average (39% of episodes beat drift).
| horizon | excess vs own drift | beat-drift rate | episodes with complete horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -0.06% | 45% | 33 |
| 5 sessions | -0.26% | 52% | 33 |
| 20 sessions | -1.29% | 39% | 33 |
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