Signal track record
For each common technical signal, this is a measured record of what happened next — across the stocks and crypto assets this site covers, over years of history, reported as fact including where the signal did nothing.
For each common technical signal, this is a measured record of what happened next — across the stocks and crypto assets this site covers, over years of history, reported as fact including where the signal did nothing.
How to read this. These figures are measured only on instruments currently covered by this site — a set of companies that survived. Signals that appear to have ‘worked’ on the downside are conditioned on these names having recovered; a company that fell and never came back would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.
All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.
Stock signals
- RSI(14) (8710 episodes measured)
- 52-week position (5851 episodes measured)
- 20-day return (5607 episodes measured)
- 20-day volatility (4372 episodes measured)
- daily move (18653 episodes measured) · no forward signal
- relative volume (16614 episodes measured) · no forward signal
Research notes
- What followed RSI 30 and 70, 1962–2026 (by decade and by stock; data as of 2026-10-02)
- Does a stock near its 52-week high or low keep going? 1962–2026 (by decade and by stock; data as of 2026-10-02)
Crypto
- Bitcoin (BTC) (500 episodes measured)
- Ethereum (ETH) (407 episodes measured)
- Solana (SOL) (247 episodes measured)
- Dogecoin (DOGE) (333 episodes measured)
These figures are measured only on the four crypto assets currently covered by this site — coins that survived and grew large. Many coins from the same years collapsed or disappeared and would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.