RSI(14): what it was followed by

Data as of 2026-10-16

What an extreme RSI(14) reading was historically followed by, measured across the stocks this site covers.

How to read this. These figures are measured only on instruments currently covered by this site — a set of companies that survived. Signals that appear to have ‘worked’ on the downside are conditioned on these names having recovered; a company that fell and never came back would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.

All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.

Read the analysis: what followed RSI 30 and 70, by decade and by stock.

Overbought / high extreme

Across 5375 past episodes where a stock was overbought on this signal, the 5358 with a complete 20-session forward window lagged the stock’s own trailing drift by 0.44 percentage points on average (46% of those 5358 beat drift).

the stock forward excess return vs its own drift after overbought RSI(14) readings, by horizon.
horizon	excess vs own drift	beat-drift rate	episodes with a complete horizon
1 session	-0.06%	44%	5375
5 sessions	-0.35%	45%	5366
20 sessions	-0.44%	46%	5358

Oversold / low extreme

Across 3335 past episodes where a stock was oversold on this signal, the 3322 with a complete 20-session forward window beat the stock’s own trailing drift by 0.67 percentage points on average (53% of those 3322 beat drift).

the stock forward excess return vs its own drift after oversold RSI(14) readings, by horizon.
horizon	excess vs own drift	beat-drift rate	episodes with a complete horizon
1 session	+0.24%	51%	3335
5 sessions	+0.71%	54%	3333
20 sessions	+0.67%	53%	3322

By instrument

Each instrument’s own history on this signal (where it has enough episodes to characterise):