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CAT RSI(14): the current reading and its track record

CAT’s current RSI(14) reading and what that signal has historically been followed by.

CAT’s RSI(14) is currently 30.7 (5th percentile of its own history), as of 2026-10-16.

This page covers Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — its current RSI(14) reading and the measured historical record of what CAT RSI(14) extremes were followed by.

7030
RSI(14) history — last 252 sessions (0–100 scale; dashed lines mark the 70 overbought / 30 oversold bands).
Show recent RSI(14) values
Most recent 30 daily RSI(14) readings (the tail of the chart series above).
dateRSI(14)
2026-09-0445.4
2026-09-0847.9
2026-09-0946.1
2026-09-1043.4
2026-09-1147.7
2026-09-1439.5
2026-09-1539.4
2026-09-1639.2
2026-09-1744.6
2026-09-1847.9
2026-09-2150.2
2026-09-2247.6
2026-09-2348.9
2026-09-2446.8
2026-09-2552.2
2026-09-2851.7
2026-09-2953.9
2026-09-3048.2
2026-10-0153.4
2026-10-0258.8
2026-10-0559.5
2026-10-0663.4
2026-10-0747.5
2026-10-0843.3
2026-10-0944.6
2026-10-1244.3
2026-10-1338.2
2026-10-1433.7
2026-10-1531.5
2026-10-1630.7

How to read this. These figures are measured only on instruments currently covered by this site — a set of companies that survived. Signals that appear to have ‘worked’ on the downside are conditioned on these names having recovered; a company that fell and never came back would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.

All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.

Measured across CAT’s RSI(14) history from 1962 to 2026: 181 overbought episodes and 134 oversold episodes. Overbought readings were followed by -0.11% excess at 5 sessions and -0.49% by 20; oversold readings were followed by +0.14% excess at 5 sessions and +1.22% by 20.

On this signal, the most recent episode in which CAT was overbought began on 2026-04-23; the most recent in which it was oversold, on 2026-07-29.

Outcomes are measured for episodes up to 2026-07-29, the most recent with enough later sessions to score. The current reading above is from a later date, 2026-10-16.

When CAT was overbought

Across 181 past episodes where CAT was overbought on this signal, the close 20 sessions later lagged CAT’s own trailing drift by 0.49 percentage points on average (46% of episodes beat drift).

CAT forward excess return vs its own drift after overbought RSI(14) readings, by horizon.
horizonexcess vs own driftbeat-drift rateepisodes with a complete horizon
1 session+0.32%55%181
5 sessions-0.11%48%181
20 sessions-0.49%46%181

When CAT was oversold

Across 134 past episodes where CAT was oversold on this signal, the close 20 sessions later beat CAT’s own trailing drift by 1.22 percentage points on average (56% of episodes beat drift).

CAT forward excess return vs its own drift after oversold RSI(14) readings, by horizon.
horizonexcess vs own driftbeat-drift rateepisodes with a complete horizon
1 session-0.08%49%134
5 sessions+0.14%51%134
20 sessions+1.22%56%134

How CAT RSI(14) is measured

RSI(14) is the 14-day Relative Strength Index, a momentum gauge bounded between 0 and 100, computed from CAT’s daily closing prices using Wilder’s smoothing. On this page a reading of 70 or above is treated as overbought and 30 or below as oversold; each historical episode is counted from the first session the threshold was reached (not its most extreme point).

Forward results are measured as excess versus CAT’s own trailing drift, not versus the market. This page reports the readings and what historically followed them; it does not interpret any level as a signal to buy or sell. See the methodology and reproducibility notes for the full calculation and sample rules.

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