CAT 52-week position: the current reading and its track record
CAT’s current 52-week position reading and what that signal has historically been followed by.
CAT is currently at 39.2% of its 52-week range, as of 2026-10-16.
This page covers Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — its current 52-week position reading and the measured historical record of what CAT 52-week position extremes were followed by.
How to read this. These figures are measured only on instruments currently covered by this site — a set of companies that survived. Signals that appear to have ‘worked’ on the downside are conditioned on these names having recovered; a company that fell and never came back would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.
All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.
Measured across CAT’s 52-week position history from 1963 to 2026: 136 high-extreme episodes and 67 low-extreme episodes. High-extreme readings were followed by +0.52% excess at 5 sessions and +0.34% by 20; low-extreme readings were followed by +0.05% excess at 5 sessions and +1.74% by 20.
On this signal, the most recent episode in which CAT was at a high extreme began on 2026-04-08; the most recent in which it was at a low extreme, on 2025-04-03.
Outcomes are measured for episodes up to 2026-04-08, the most recent with enough later sessions to score. The current reading above is from a later date, 2026-10-16.
When CAT was at a high extreme
Across 136 past episodes where CAT was at a high extreme on this signal, the close 20 sessions later beat CAT’s own trailing drift by 0.34 percentage points on average (49% of episodes beat drift).
| horizon | excess vs own drift | beat-drift rate | episodes with a complete horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | +0.03% | 46% | 136 |
| 5 sessions | +0.52% | 57% | 136 |
| 20 sessions | +0.34% | 49% | 136 |
When CAT was at a low extreme
Across 67 past episodes where CAT was at a low extreme on this signal, the close 20 sessions later beat CAT’s own trailing drift by 1.74 percentage points on average (55% of episodes beat drift).
| horizon | excess vs own drift | beat-drift rate | episodes with a complete horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -0.21% | 48% | 67 |
| 5 sessions | +0.05% | 49% | 67 |
| 20 sessions | +1.74% | 55% | 67 |
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