HD daily move: the current reading and its track record
HD’s current daily move reading and what that signal has historically been followed by.
This page covers The Home Depot (HD) — its current daily move reading and the measured historical record of what HD daily move extremes were followed by.
How to read this. These figures are measured only on instruments currently covered by this site — a set of companies that survived. Signals that appear to have ‘worked’ on the downside are conditioned on these names having recovered; a company that fell and never came back would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.
All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.
Daily move showed no measurable forward signal. Across the full sample, episodes on this measure were followed by returns statistically indistinguishable from each instrument’s own drift — this is reported as a null result rather than left out.
When HD was at a high extreme
Across 135 past episodes where HD was at a high extreme on this signal, the 134 with a complete 20-session forward window lagged HD’s own trailing drift by 3.91 percentage points on average (37% of those 134 beat drift).
| horizon | excess vs own drift | beat-drift rate | episodes with a complete horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | +0.01% | 50% | 135 |
| 5 sessions | -0.87% | 44% | 134 |
| 20 sessions | -3.91% | 37% | 134 |
When HD was at a low extreme
Across 170 past episodes where HD was at a low extreme on this signal, the close 20 sessions later lagged HD’s own trailing drift by 2.67 percentage points on average (41% of episodes beat drift).
| horizon | excess vs own drift | beat-drift rate | episodes with a complete horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | +0.02% | 50% | 170 |
| 5 sessions | -0.67% | 46% | 170 |
| 20 sessions | -2.67% | 41% | 170 |
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