MCD relative volume: the current reading and its track record

Data as of 2026-10-16

MCD’s current relative volume reading and what that signal has historically been followed by.

This page covers McDonald's (MCD) — its current relative volume reading and the measured historical record of what MCD relative volume extremes were followed by.

How to read this. These figures are measured only on instruments currently covered by this site — a set of companies that survived. Signals that appear to have ‘worked’ on the downside are conditioned on these names having recovered; a company that fell and never came back would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.

All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.

Relative volume showed no measurable forward signal. Across the full sample, episodes on this measure were followed by returns statistically indistinguishable from each instrument’s own drift — this is reported as a null result rather than left out.

When MCD was at a high extreme

Across 318 past episodes where MCD was at a high extreme on this signal, the close 20 sessions later lagged MCD’s own trailing drift by 0.15 percentage points on average (46% of episodes beat drift).

MCD forward excess return vs its own drift after high-extreme relative volume readings, by horizon.
horizon	excess vs own drift	beat-drift rate	episodes with a complete horizon
1 session	-0.12%	38%	318
5 sessions	+0.11%	47%	318
20 sessions	-0.15%	46%	318

When MCD was at a low extreme

Across 145 past episodes where MCD was at a low extreme on this signal, the close 20 sessions later lagged MCD’s own trailing drift by 0.83 percentage points on average (46% of episodes beat drift).

MCD forward excess return vs its own drift after low-extreme relative volume readings, by horizon.
horizon	excess vs own drift	beat-drift rate	episodes with a complete horizon
1 session	+0.05%	45%	145
5 sessions	-0.19%	48%	145
20 sessions	-0.83%	46%	145

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