NKE relative volume: the current reading and its track record

Data as of 2026-10-16

NKE’s current relative volume reading and what that signal has historically been followed by.

This page covers Nike, Inc. (NKE) — its current relative volume reading and the measured historical record of what NKE relative volume extremes were followed by.

How to read this. These figures are measured only on instruments currently covered by this site — a set of companies that survived. Signals that appear to have ‘worked’ on the downside are conditioned on these names having recovered; a company that fell and never came back would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.

All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.

Relative volume showed no measurable forward signal. Across the full sample, episodes on this measure were followed by returns statistically indistinguishable from each instrument’s own drift — this is reported as a null result rather than left out.

When NKE was at a high extreme

Across 238 past episodes where NKE was at a high extreme on this signal, the 237 with a complete 20-session forward window lagged NKE’s own trailing drift by 0.56 percentage points on average (50% of those 237 beat drift).

NKE forward excess return vs its own drift after high-extreme relative volume readings, by horizon.
horizon	excess vs own drift	beat-drift rate	episodes with a complete horizon
1 session	-0.32%	37%	238
5 sessions	+0.24%	47%	238
20 sessions	-0.56%	50%	237

When NKE was at a low extreme

Across 108 past episodes where NKE was at a low extreme on this signal, the close 20 sessions later beat NKE’s own trailing drift by 0.11 percentage points on average (46% of episodes beat drift).

NKE forward excess return vs its own drift after low-extreme relative volume readings, by horizon.
horizon	excess vs own drift	beat-drift rate	episodes with a complete horizon
1 session	-0.05%	39%	108
5 sessions	-0.60%	43%	108
20 sessions	+0.11%	46%	108

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