PLTR's current 20d return reading and what that signal has historically been followed by.

This page covers Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — its current 20d return reading and the measured historical record of what PLTR 20d return extremes were followed by.

How to read this. These figures are measured only on instruments currently in our coverage — a set of companies that survived. Signals that appear to have 'worked' on the downside are conditioned on these names having recovered; a company that fell and never came back would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.

All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.

When PLTR was overbought / at a high extreme

PLTR has only 5 past episodes on this signal — too few to characterize on their own. Showing the all-stocks pattern instead.

Across 2175 past episodes where a stock was overbought on this signal, the 2170 with a complete 20-session forward window lagged a stock’s own trailing drift by 0.20 percentage points on average (47% of those 2170 beat drift).

the stock forward excess return vs its own drift after overbought 20d return readings, by horizon.
horizon	excess vs own drift	beat-drift rate	episodes with complete horizon
1 session	-0.19%	41%	2175
5 sessions	-0.50%	42%	2173
20 sessions	-0.20%	47%	2170

When PLTR was oversold / at a low extreme

PLTR has only 9 past episodes on this signal — too few to characterize on their own. Showing the all-stocks pattern instead.

Across 2135 past episodes where a stock was oversold on this signal, the 2132 with a complete 20-session forward window beat a stock’s own trailing drift by 0.23 percentage points on average (53% of those 2132 beat drift).

the stock forward excess return vs its own drift after oversold 20d return readings, by horizon.
horizon	excess vs own drift	beat-drift rate	episodes with complete horizon
1 session	+0.22%	49%	2135
5 sessions	+0.33%	52%	2135
20 sessions	+0.23%	53%	2132

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