FX Daily — 2026-06-25

FX daily report for reference date 2026-06-25. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = distance from each pair's own median — a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — not a trading signal)
  USD/CAD  RSI(14) 84.86                (100th pct, since 2003)   · surprise 100
  USD/JPY  52wk position 99.4% of range (52wk)                    · surprise  99
  EUR/USD  RSI(14) 24.89                (1st pct, since 2003)     · surprise  98
  AUD/USD  RSI(14) 27.42                (2nd pct, since 2006)     · surprise  96
  NZD/USD  RSI(14) 27.91                (3rd pct, since 2003)     · surprise  94
  USD/CHF  RSI(14) 71.37                (97th pct, since 2003)    · surprise  94  [1d behind]
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-06-25)
  level       18.00
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-06-25)
  >> RBNZ  2026-07-08  (13 days)   · cross-link: NZD/USD (RSI(14) 3rd pct)
  >> BoC   2026-07-15  (20 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (RSI(14) 100th pct)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (28 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (RSI(14) 1st pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (34 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (RSI(14) 1st pct), USD/JPY (52wk position 99.4% of range), USD/CHF (RSI(14) 97th pct), AUD/USD (RSI(14) 2nd pct), USD/CAD (RSI(14) 100th pct), NZD/USD (RSI(14) 3rd pct)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (36 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (52wk position 99.4% of range)
  >> RBA   2026-08-11  (47 days)   · cross-link: AUD/USD (RSI(14) 2nd pct)
  >> SNB   2026-09-24  (91 days)   · cross-link: USD/CHF (RSI(14) 97th pct)