USD/JPY: RSI 78.30 (99th pct)

On 2026-07-02, USD/JPY closed at 162.539, down 0.06% on the day. It trades at 98.3% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 78.30 is in the 99th percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of +1.62% in the 72nd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -22.5% of open interest, in the 25th percentile of its own two-year range.

=== USD/JPY  (pip 0.01) ===
  >> close 162.539  -0.055%   · RSI(14) 78.30 (99th pct, since 1996) while price > all MAs
     cross-signal: signals split — RSI(14) up · 52wk position up · positioning net%OI up · 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-02, prior 2026-07-01)
    close       162.539
    change      -0.089  (-0.055%, -8.9 pips)
    gap         -0.086  (-8.6 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-02)
    range       1.896  (189.6 pips)
    close pos   97.6% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-02)
     20d MA     161.054   price above by +0.92%
     50d MA     159.581   price above by +1.85%
    200d MA     156.610   price above by +3.79%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-02)
    20d stdev   0.160% daily
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-02)
    ATR(14)    0.674  (67.4 pips)
    ATR%        0.41%
    range/ATR   281.5%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-02)
    high        162.836   (-0.18% from high)
    low         145.856   (+11.44% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-02)
    RSI(14)     78.30
  returns          (as of 2026-07-02)
     5d return  +0.48%
    20d return  +1.62%
    60d return  +2.46%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.8804%
    ZIRP-2009        0.6396%
    tightening-2015  0.5829%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4159%
    tightening-2022  0.6795%
    easing-2024      0.5967%
  positioning      (as of 2026-06-23)
    net         -97,092 contracts (net short JPY)
    net % OI    -22.5%
    net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 130w)
    w/w change  -320
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-02)
    vs DXY      +0.54
    vs S&P 500  -0.11
    vs DXY beta +0.75 (26w)