On 2026-07-06, EUR/USD closed at 1.14377, up 0.13% on the day. It trades at 16.1% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 42.67 is in the 27th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -0.74% in the 37th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -4.1% of open interest, in the 26th percentile of its own two-year range.
=== EUR/USD (pip 0.0001) ===
>> close 1.14377 +0.131%
price & change (as of 2026-07-06, prior 2026-07-03)
close 1.14377
change +0.00150 (+0.131%, +15.0 pips)
gap +0.00132 (+13.2 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-06)
range 0.00345 (34.5 pips)
close pos 80.9% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-07-06)
20d MA 1.14697 price below by -0.28%
50d MA 1.15897 price below by -1.31%
200d MA 1.16533 price below by -1.85%
price < all MAs
stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
volatility (as of 2026-07-06)
20d stdev 0.315% daily (11th pct of own history)
vs easing-2024 avg 0.73× (0.315% vs 0.433% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-06)
ATR(14) 0.00673 (67.3 pips)
ATR% 0.59% (15th pct of own history)
range/ATR 51.3%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-06)
high 1.20236 (-4.87% from high)
low 1.13254 (+0.99% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-06)
RSI(14) 42.67 (27th pct of own history)
returns (as of 2026-07-06)
5d return +0.46%
20d return -0.74%
60d return -2.03%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 1.0543% (from 2003-12-01)
ZIRP-2009 0.6640%
tightening-2015 0.4886%
ZIRP-2019 0.3870%
tightening-2022 0.5496%
easing-2024 0.4333%
positioning (as of 2026-06-30)
next COT as of 2026-07-07 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -32,644 contracts (net short EUR)
net % OI -4.1%
net%OI range -7.8% … +6.5% (own 131w)
w/w change -17,234
rate differential (US–EU policy)
US (FEDFUNDS) 3.63% (as of 2026-06-01) (predates 2026-06-17 FOMC)
next FOMC 2026-07-29 (23 days)
EU (ECBMRRFR) 2.40% (as of 2026-07-06)
differential withheld — US (FEDFUNDS) is the MONTHLY EFFECTIVE rate as of 2026-06-01, predating the 2026-06-17 FOMC; subtracting the legs above yields a PRE-decision figure, not the current differential
10Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS10) 4.48% (as of 2026-07-06)
EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 3.02% (as of 2026-07-06)
spread +1.46%
2Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS2) 4.13% (as of 2026-07-06)
EU (euro-area AAA 2Y) 2.48% (as of 2026-07-06)
spread +1.65%
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-06)
vs DXY -0.83
vs S&P 500 +0.38
vs DXY beta -0.80 (26w)