On 2026-07-07, EUR/USD closed at 1.14418, up 0.04% on the day. It trades at 16.7% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 43.32 is in the 29th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -0.75% in the 36th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -4.1% of open interest, in the 26th percentile of its own two-year range.
=== EUR/USD (pip 0.0001) ===
>> close 1.14418 +0.036%
price & change (as of 2026-07-07, prior 2026-07-06)
close 1.14418
change +0.00041 (+0.036%, +4.1 pips)
gap +0.00046 (+4.6 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-07)
range 0.00241 (24.1 pips)
close pos 78.0% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-07-07)
20d MA 1.14653 price below by -0.21%
50d MA 1.15841 price below by -1.23%
200d MA 1.16522 price below by -1.81%
price < all MAs
stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
volatility (as of 2026-07-07)
20d stdev 0.315% daily ≈ 5.0% annualized (×√252) (11th pct of own history, since 2003 (5830 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.73× (0.315% vs 0.433% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-07)
ATR(14) 0.00642 (64.2 pips)
ATR% 0.56% (13th pct of own history, since 2003 (5836 obs))
range/ATR 37.5%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-07)
high 1.20236 (-4.84% from high)
low 1.13254 (+1.03% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-07)
RSI(14) 43.32 (29th pct of own history, since 2003 (5836 obs))
returns (as of 2026-07-07)
5d return +0.17%
20d return -0.75%
60d return -2.78%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 1.0543% (from 2003-12-01)
ZIRP-2009 0.6640%
tightening-2015 0.4886%
ZIRP-2019 0.3870%
tightening-2022 0.5496%
easing-2024 0.4330%
positioning (as of 2026-06-30)
next COT as of 2026-07-07 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -32,644 contracts (net short EUR)
net % OI -4.1%
net%OI range -7.8% … +6.5% (own 131w)
w/w change -17,234
rate differential (US–EU policy)
US (FEDFUNDS) 3.63% (as of 2026-06-01) (predates 2026-06-17 FOMC)
next FOMC 2026-07-29 (22 days)
EU (ECBMRRFR) 2.40% (as of 2026-07-07)
differential withheld — US (FEDFUNDS) is the MONTHLY EFFECTIVE rate as of 2026-06-01, predating the 2026-06-17 FOMC; subtracting the legs above yields a PRE-decision figure, not the current differential
10Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS10) 4.48% (as of 2026-07-06)
EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 3.02% (as of 2026-07-06)
spread +1.46%
2Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS2) 4.13% (as of 2026-07-06)
EU (euro-area AAA 2Y) 2.48% (as of 2026-07-06)
spread +1.65%
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-07)
vs DXY -0.80
vs S&P 500 +0.37
vs DXY beta -0.79 (26w)