On 2026-07-08, EUR/USD closed at 1.14038, down 0.33% on the day. It trades at 11.2% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 38.93 is in the 18th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -1.14% in the 29th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -4.1% of open interest, in the 26th percentile of its own two-year range.
=== EUR/USD (pip 0.0001) ===
>> close 1.14038 -0.332%
price & change (as of 2026-07-08, prior 2026-07-07)
close 1.14038
change -0.00380 (-0.332%, -38.0 pips)
gap -0.00409 (-40.9 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-08)
range 0.00406 (40.6 pips)
close pos 29.3% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-07-08)
20d MA 1.14587 price below by -0.48%
50d MA 1.15778 price below by -1.50%
200d MA 1.16506 price below by -2.12%
price < all MAs
stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
volatility (as of 2026-07-08)
20d stdev 0.321% daily ≈ 5.1% annualized (×√252) (12th pct of own history, since 2003 (5831 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.74× (0.321% vs 0.433% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-08)
ATR(14) 0.00632 (63.2 pips)
ATR% 0.55% (12th pct of own history, since 2003 (5837 obs))
range/ATR 64.3%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-08)
high 1.20236 (-5.15% from high)
low 1.13254 (+0.69% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-08)
RSI(14) 38.93 (18th pct of own history, since 2003 (5837 obs))
returns (as of 2026-07-08)
5d return -0.08%
20d return -1.14%
60d return -3.35%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 1.0543% (from 2003-12-01)
ZIRP-2009 0.6640%
tightening-2015 0.4886%
ZIRP-2019 0.3870%
tightening-2022 0.5496%
easing-2024 0.4329%
positioning (as of 2026-06-30)
next COT as of 2026-07-07 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -32,644 contracts (net short EUR)
net % OI -4.1%
net%OI range -7.8% … +6.5% (own 131w)
w/w change -17,234
rate differential (US–EU policy)
US (FEDFUNDS) 3.63% (as of 2026-06-01) (spans 2026-06-17 FOMC)
next FOMC 2026-07-29 (21 days)
EU (ECBMRRFR) 2.40% (as of 2026-07-08)
differential withheld — US (FEDFUNDS) is the MONTHLY EFFECTIVE rate as of 2026-06-01: a month average spanning the 2026-06-17 FOMC, blending pre- and post-decision days; subtracting the legs above yields a mixed figure, not the current differential
10Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS10) 4.55% (as of 2026-07-07)
EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 3.14% (as of 2026-07-08)
spread +1.41%
2Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS2) 4.19% (as of 2026-07-07)
EU (euro-area AAA 2Y) 2.62% (as of 2026-07-08)
spread +1.57%
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-08)
vs DXY -0.81
vs S&P 500 +0.37
vs DXY beta -0.79 (26w)