On 2026-07-09, EUR/USD closed at 1.1422, up 0.16% on the day. It trades at 13.8% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 41.97 is in the 25th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -0.98% in the 32nd percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -5.7% of open interest, in the 14th percentile of its own two-year range.
=== EUR/USD (pip 0.0001) ===
>> close 1.14220 +0.160%
price & change (as of 2026-07-09, prior 2026-07-08)
close 1.14220
change +0.00182 (+0.160%, +18.2 pips)
gap +0.00181 (+18.1 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-09)
range 0.00295 (29.5 pips)
close pos 2.4% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-07-09)
20d MA 1.14531 price below by -0.27%
50d MA 1.15725 price below by -1.30%
200d MA 1.16491 price below by -1.95%
price < all MAs
stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
volatility (as of 2026-07-09)
20d stdev 0.324% daily ≈ 5.1% annualized (×√252) (12th pct of own history, since 2003 (5832 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.75× (0.324% vs 0.433% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-09)
ATR(14) 0.00620 (62.0 pips)
ATR% 0.54% (11th pct of own history, since 2003 (5838 obs))
range/ATR 47.6%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-09)
high 1.20236 (-5.00% from high)
low 1.13254 (+0.85% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-09)
RSI(14) 41.97 (25th pct of own history, since 2003 (5838 obs))
returns (as of 2026-07-09)
5d return +0.39%
20d return -0.98%
60d return -3.28%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 1.0543% (from 2003-12-01)
ZIRP-2009 0.6640%
tightening-2015 0.4886%
ZIRP-2019 0.3870%
tightening-2022 0.5496%
easing-2024 0.4326%
positioning (as of 2026-07-07)
next COT as of 2026-07-14 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -45,461 contracts (net short EUR)
net % OI -5.7%
net%OI range -7.8% … +6.5% (own 132w)
w/w change -12,817
rate differential (US–EU policy)
US (FEDFUNDS) 3.63% (as of 2026-06-01) (spans 2026-06-17 FOMC)
next FOMC 2026-07-29 (20 days)
EU (ECBMRRFR) 2.40% (as of 2026-07-09)
differential withheld — US (FEDFUNDS) is the MONTHLY EFFECTIVE rate as of 2026-06-01: a month average spanning the 2026-06-17 FOMC, blending pre- and post-decision days; subtracting the legs above yields a mixed figure, not the current differential
10Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS10) 4.54% (as of 2026-07-09)
EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 3.13% (as of 2026-07-09)
spread +1.41%
2Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS2) 4.16% (as of 2026-07-09)
EU (euro-area AAA 2Y) 2.61% (as of 2026-07-09)
spread +1.55%
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-09)
vs DXY -0.81
vs S&P 500 +0.38
vs DXY beta -0.79 (26w)