On 2026-07-10, EUR/USD closed at 1.14334, up 0.10% on the day. It trades at 15.5% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 43.85 is in the 31st percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -1.23% in the 28th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -5.7% of open interest, in the 14th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.14459 / 1.15666 / 1.16476, with price -0.11% / -1.15% / -1.84% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.13254–1.20236; it closed 4.91% below the high and 0.95% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.313% daily, in the 11th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00608 (60.8 pips), 0.53% of price. It has returned +0.09% over 5 days and -2.96% over 60 days.
=== EUR/USD (pip 0.0001) ===
>> close 1.14334 +0.100%
price & change (as of 2026-07-10, prior 2026-07-09)
close 1.14334
change +0.00114 (+0.100%, +11.4 pips)
gap +0.00118 (+11.8 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-10)
range 0.00442 (44.2 pips)
close pos 33.9% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-07-10)
20d MA 1.14459 price below by -0.11%
50d MA 1.15666 price below by -1.15%
200d MA 1.16476 price below by -1.84%
price < all MAs
stack: 200d > 50d > 20d
volatility (as of 2026-07-10)
20d stdev 0.313% daily ≈ 5.0% annualized (×√252) (11th pct of own history, since 2003 (5833 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.72× (0.313% vs 0.432% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-10)
ATR(14) 0.00608 (60.8 pips)
ATR% 0.53% (10th pct of own history, since 2003 (5839 obs))
range/ATR 72.8%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-10)
high 1.20236 (-4.91% from high)
low 1.13254 (+0.95% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-10)
RSI(14) 43.85 (31st pct of own history, since 2003 (5839 obs))
returns (as of 2026-07-10)
5d return +0.09%
20d return -1.23%
60d return -2.96%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 1.0543% (from 2003-12-01)
ZIRP-2009 0.6640%
tightening-2015 0.4886%
ZIRP-2019 0.3870%
tightening-2022 0.5496%
easing-2024 0.4323%
positioning (as of 2026-07-07)
next COT as of 2026-07-14 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -45,461 contracts (net short EUR)
net % OI -5.7%
net%OI range -7.8% … +6.5% (own 132w)
w/w change -12,817
rate differential (EUR–USD policy)
EUR (ECB_DFR) 2.25% (set 2026-06-17, deposit-facility floor)
next ECB 2026-07-23 (13 days)
USD (EFFR) 3.62% (as of 2026-07-09, daily effective)
next Fed 2026-07-29 (19 days)
differential -1.37% (base−quote)
10Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS10) 4.54% (as of 2026-07-09)
EU (euro-area AAA 10Y) 3.13% (as of 2026-07-09)
spread +1.41%
2Y yield spread (US–EU)
US (DGS2) 4.16% (as of 2026-07-09)
EU (euro-area AAA 2Y) 2.61% (as of 2026-07-09)
spread +1.55%
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-10)
vs DXY -0.80
vs S&P 500 +0.39
vs DXY beta -0.79 (26w)