FX Daily — 2026-07-10

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-10. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-10, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.14334  +0.10%  43.9 (31st)  15.5%  -1.23% (28th)      -5.7% (14th)
GBP/USD  1.34156  +0.14%  58.0 (74th)  48.4%  +0.01% (49th)      +6.4% (34th)
USD/JPY  162.363  -0.11%  64.8 (87th)  97.2%  +1.39% (69th)     -22.6% (25th)
USD/CHF  0.80654  -0.19%  57.2 (74th)  80.6%  +1.45% (75th)      -6.7% (60th)
AUD/USD  0.69444  +0.12%  43.3 (29th)  61.4%  -1.47% (28th)     +14.5% (74th)
USD/CAD  1.41624  -0.03%  61.9 (84th)  88.8%  +1.36% (76th)     -23.6% (33rd)
NZD/USD  0.57623  +0.81%  53.2 (59th)  35.0%  -1.21% (34th)      -24.0% (6th)
EUR/GBP  0.85232  -0.02%   25.3 (0th)   4.0%  -1.22% (24th)      -1.2% (97th)
EUR/HUF  356.256  -0.24%  56.1 (70th)  14.9%  +1.16% (73rd)
USD/HUF  311.963  -0.48%  56.9 (72nd)  23.3%  +2.27% (76th)
GBP/HUF   418.57  -0.37%  63.8 (89th)  25.3%  +2.31% (80th)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  EUR/GBP  new 52wk intraday low (0.85090)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  EUR/GBP  RSI(14) 25.34                (0th pct, since 1999 (7143 obs)) · surprise 100
  USD/JPY  20d vol 0.234% daily         (2nd pct, since 1996 (7670 obs)) · surprise  96
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.232% daily         (4th pct, since 2003 (5911 obs)) · surprise  92
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-10)
  level       15.03
  change      -0.81  (-5.1%)  (prior 2026-07-09)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  10th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-10)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       100.970
  change      +0.030  (+0.03%)  (prior 2026-07-09)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  96th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     98.938   price above by +2.05%
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-10)
  level       7575.39
  change      +31.75  (+0.42%)  (prior 2026-07-09)
  1yr range   6238.01 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  98th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     6965.14   price above by +8.76%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-10)
  >> BoC   2026-07-15  (5 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (13 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 0th pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (19 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 2nd pct), USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct)
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (20 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 0th pct)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (21 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 2nd pct)