USD/JPY: 20-day volatility 0.234% daily (2nd pct)

On 2026-07-10, USD/JPY closed at 162.363, down 0.11% on the day. It trades at 97.2% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 64.81 is in the 87th percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of +1.39% in the 69th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -22.6% of open interest, in the 25th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 161.59 / 159.918 / 157.01, with price +0.48% / +1.53% / +3.41% against them. Its 52-week range is 145.856–162.836; it closed 0.29% below the high and 11.32% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.234% daily, in the 2nd percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.768 (76.8 pips), 0.47% of price. It has returned +0.57% over 5 days and +1.99% over 60 days.

=== USD/JPY  (pip 0.01) ===
  >> close 162.363  -0.108%   · 20d vol 0.234% daily (2nd pct, since 1996 (7670 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-10, prior 2026-07-09)
    close       162.363
    change      -0.176  (-0.108%, -17.6 pips)
    gap         -0.204  (-20.4 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-10)
    range       1.127  (112.7 pips)
    close pos   95.0% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-10)
     20d MA     161.590   price above by +0.48%
     50d MA     159.918   price above by +1.53%
    200d MA     157.010   price above by +3.41%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-10)
    20d stdev   0.234% daily ≈ 3.7% annualized (×√252)   (2nd pct of own history, since 1996 (7670 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.39× (0.234% vs 0.595% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-10)
    ATR(14)    0.768  (76.8 pips)
    ATR%        0.47%   (2nd pct of own history, since 1996 (7676 obs))
    range/ATR   146.8%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-10)
    high        162.836   (-0.29% from high)
    low         145.856   (+11.32% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-10)
    RSI(14)     64.81   (87th pct of own history, since 1996 (7676 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-10)
     5d return  +0.57%
    20d return  +1.39%
    60d return  +1.99%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.8804%   (from 1996-10-30)
    ZIRP-2009        0.6396%
    tightening-2015  0.5829%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4159%
    tightening-2022  0.6795%
    easing-2024      0.5948%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-07)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-14 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -90,083 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
    net % OI    -22.6%
    net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 132w)
    w/w change  +25,317
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-10)
    vs DXY      +0.54
    vs S&P 500  -0.11
    vs DXY beta +0.76 (26w)