On 2026-07-13, USD/JPY closed at 161.878, down 0.30% on the day. It trades at 94.4% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 57.20 is in the 68th percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of +1.20% in the 66th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -22.6% of open interest, in the 25th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 161.686 / 160.019 / 157.084, with price +0.12% / +1.16% / +3.05% against them. Its 52-week range is 145.856–162.836; it closed 0.59% below the high and 10.98% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.245% daily, in the 2nd percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.749 (74.9 pips), 0.46% of price. It has returned +0.26% over 5 days and +1.71% over 60 days.
=== USD/JPY (pip 0.01) ===
>> close 161.878 -0.299% · 20d vol 0.245% daily (2nd pct, since 1996 (7671 obs))
cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
price & change (as of 2026-07-13, prior 2026-07-10)
close 161.878
change -0.485 (-0.299%, -48.5 pips)
gap -0.477 (-47.7 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-13)
range 0.507 (50.7 pips) (H−L unaffected by the out-of-range close; only close-position is)
close pos n/a (close 0.8 pips below low — async-close artifact)
moving averages (as of 2026-07-13)
20d MA 161.686 price above by +0.12%
50d MA 160.019 price above by +1.16%
200d MA 157.084 price above by +3.05%
price > all MAs
stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
volatility (as of 2026-07-13)
20d stdev 0.245% daily ≈ 3.9% annualized (×√252) (2nd pct of own history, since 1996 (7671 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.41× (0.245% vs 0.594% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-13)
ATR(14) 0.749 (74.9 pips)
ATR% 0.46% (2nd pct of own history, since 1996 (7677 obs))
range/ATR 67.7%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-13)
high 162.836 (-0.59% from high)
low 145.856 (+10.98% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-13)
RSI(14) 57.20 (68th pct of own history, since 1996 (7677 obs))
returns (as of 2026-07-13)
5d return +0.26%
20d return +1.20%
60d return +1.71%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 0.8804% (from 1996-10-30)
ZIRP-2009 0.6396%
tightening-2015 0.5829%
ZIRP-2019 0.4159%
tightening-2022 0.6795%
easing-2024 0.5945%
positioning (as of 2026-07-07)
next COT as of 2026-07-14 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -90,083 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
net % OI -22.6%
net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 132w)
w/w change +25,317
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-13)
vs DXY +0.53
vs S&P 500 -0.09
vs DXY beta +0.75 (26w)