FX Daily — 2026-07-13

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-13. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-13, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.14045  -0.25%  40.3 (21st)  11.3%  -1.71% (21st)      -5.7% (14th)
GBP/USD  1.33869  -0.21%  54.7 (65th)  44.9%  -0.47% (41st)      +6.4% (34th)
USD/JPY  161.878  -0.30%  57.2 (68th)  94.4%  +1.20% (66th)     -22.6% (25th)
USD/CHF  0.80936  +0.35%  61.2 (83rd)  85.8%  +1.95% (81st)      -6.7% (60th)
AUD/USD  0.69422  -0.03%  43.0 (28th)  61.1%  -1.88% (23rd)     +14.5% (74th)
USD/CAD  1.41634  +0.01%  62.1 (84th)  88.9%  +1.43% (77th)     -23.6% (33rd)
NZD/USD  0.57587  -0.06%  52.6 (57th)  34.3%  -1.65% (29th)      -24.0% (6th)
EUR/GBP   0.8519  -0.05%   24.7 (0th)   2.8%  -1.25% (23rd)      -1.2% (97th)
EUR/HUF  356.435  +0.05%  56.5 (72nd)  15.3%  +1.76% (82nd)
USD/HUF  312.368  +0.13%  57.8 (74th)  24.1%  +3.27% (84th)
GBP/HUF   418.07  -0.12%  62.5 (86th)  24.5%  +2.85% (85th)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  EUR/GBP  RSI(14) 24.68                (0th pct, since 1999 (7144 obs)) · surprise 100
  USD/JPY  20d vol 0.245% daily         (2nd pct, since 1996 (7671 obs)) · surprise  96
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.231% daily         (4th pct, since 2003 (5912 obs)) · surprise  92
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-13)
  level       17.16
  change      +2.13  (+14.2%)  (prior 2026-07-10)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  50th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-13)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       101.280
  change      +0.310  (+0.31%)  (prior 2026-07-10)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  98th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     98.958   price above by +2.35%
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-13)
  level       7515.34
  change      -60.05  (-0.79%)  (prior 2026-07-10)
  1yr range   6238.01 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  95th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     6969.43   price above by +7.83%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-13)
  >> BoC   2026-07-15  (2 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (10 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 0th pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (16 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 2nd pct), USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct)
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (17 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 0th pct)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (18 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 2nd pct)