USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.232% daily (4th pct)

On 2026-07-10, USD/CAD closed at 1.41624, down 0.03% on the day. It trades at 88.8% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 61.94 is in the 84th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +1.36% in the 76th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -23.6% of open interest, in the 33rd percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.41562 / 1.39317 / 1.38488, with price +0.04% / +1.66% / +2.26% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 0.60% below the high and 5.03% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.232% daily, in the 4th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00566 (56.6 pips), 0.40% of price. It has returned -0.20% over 5 days and +3.37% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.41624  -0.032%   · 20d vol 0.232% daily (4th pct, since 2003 (5911 obs))
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-10, prior 2026-07-09)
    close       1.41624
    change      -0.00046  (-0.032%, -4.6 pips)
    gap         -0.00022  (-2.2 pips)
  range            (as of 2026-07-10)
    range       0.00383  (38.3 pips)
    close pos   77.0% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-10)
     20d MA     1.41562   price above by +0.04%
     50d MA     1.39317   price above by +1.66%
    200d MA     1.38488   price above by +2.26%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-10)
    20d stdev   0.232% daily ≈ 3.7% annualized (×√252)   (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5911 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.71× (0.232% vs 0.328% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-10)
    ATR(14)    0.00566  (56.6 pips)
    ATR%        0.40%   (1st pct of own history, since 2003 (5917 obs))
    range/ATR   67.7%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-10)
    high        1.42478   (-0.60% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+5.03% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-10)
    RSI(14)     61.94   (84th pct of own history, since 2003 (5917 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-10)
     5d return  -0.20%
    20d return  +1.36%
    60d return  +3.37%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.6422%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5827%
    tightening-2015  0.4850%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4557%
    tightening-2022  0.4399%
    easing-2024      0.3283%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-07)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-14 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -85,957 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -23.6%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 132w)
    w/w change  +2,144
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.62%  (as of 2026-07-09, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (19 days)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-07-09, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-07-15  (5 days)
    differential    +1.37%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-10)
    vs DXY      +0.49
    vs S&P 500  -0.25
    vs DXY beta +0.44 (26w)