FX Daily — 2026-07-09

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-09. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-09, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD   1.1422  +0.16%  42.0 (25th)  13.8%  -0.98% (32nd)      -5.7% (14th)
GBP/USD  1.33962  +0.35%  56.3 (69th)  46.0%  +0.26% (54th)      +6.4% (34th)
USD/JPY  162.539  +0.11%  67.9 (91st)  98.3%  +1.25% (67th)     -22.6% (25th)
USD/CHF  0.80806  -0.09%  60.3 (81st)  83.4%  +1.01% (69th)      -6.7% (60th)
AUD/USD  0.69363  +0.20%  41.8 (25th)  60.4%  -0.83% (36th)     +14.5% (74th)
USD/CAD   1.4167  -0.26%  62.9 (86th)  89.4%  +1.58% (79th)     -23.6% (33rd)
NZD/USD  0.57158  +0.69%  45.4 (36th)  25.8%  -1.35% (33rd)      -24.0% (6th)
EUR/GBP  0.85249  -0.20%   25.6 (1st)   2.3%  -1.23% (24th)      -1.2% (97th)
EUR/HUF  357.132  +1.14%  58.8 (77th)  16.6%  +0.76% (67th)
USD/HUF   313.46  +1.02%  61.0 (82nd)  26.2%  +1.72% (71st)
GBP/HUF   420.14  +1.49%  68.1 (95th)  27.9%  +2.11% (78th)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  USD/CAD  RSI 62.9 — crossed below 70 (overbought boundary)
  EUR/GBP  new 52wk intraday low (0.85170)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  EUR/GBP  RSI(14) 25.60                (1st pct, since 1999 (7142 obs)) · surprise  98
  USD/JPY  52wk position 98.3% of range (52wk)                    · surprise  97
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.232% daily         (4th pct, since 2003 (5910 obs)) · surprise  92
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-09)
  level       15.84
  change      -1.06  (-6.3%)  (prior 2026-07-08)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  24th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-09)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       100.940
  change      -0.110  (-0.11%)  (prior 2026-07-08)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  96th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     98.920   price above by +2.04%
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-09)
  level       7543.64
  change      +60.93  (+0.81%)  (prior 2026-07-08)
  1yr range   6238.01 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  97th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     6960.73   price above by +8.37%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-09)
  >> BoC   2026-07-15  (6 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (14 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 1st pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (20 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (52wk position 98.3% of range), USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct)
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (21 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 1st pct)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (22 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (52wk position 98.3% of range)