FX Daily — 2026-07-08

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-08. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-08, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.14038  -0.33%  38.9 (18th)  11.2%  -1.14% (29th)      -4.1% (26th)
GBP/USD  1.33489  -0.37%  52.1 (56th)  40.4%  -0.17% (46th)      +5.5% (32nd)
USD/JPY  162.363  +0.17%  66.4 (89th)  97.2%  +1.23% (67th)     -26.3% (16th)
USD/CHF  0.80882  +0.47%  61.8 (85th)  84.8%  +1.20% (72nd)      -9.1% (53rd)
AUD/USD  0.69226  -0.47%  39.1 (18th)  58.9%  -1.43% (29th)     +14.7% (75th)
USD/CAD  1.42035  -0.03%  71.2 (96th)  94.2%  +1.79% (82nd)     -25.4% (26th)
NZD/USD  0.56766  -0.44%  37.2 (15th)  18.1%  -2.25% (22nd)      -22.9% (8th)
EUR/GBP  0.85423  +0.01%   28.3 (1st)   4.8%  -0.95% (29th)      -0.7% (98th)
EUR/HUF  353.101  +0.02%  48.1 (45th)   8.8%  -0.62% (36th)
USD/HUF  310.308  +0.48%  54.7 (66th)  20.0%  +0.65% (59th)
GBP/HUF   413.96  +0.07%  57.7 (74th)  17.8%  +0.51% (56th)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  EUR/GBP  new 52wk intraday low (0.85260)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  EUR/GBP  RSI(14) 28.34                (1st pct, since 1999 (7141 obs)) · surprise  98
  USD/JPY  20d vol 0.241% daily         (2nd pct, since 1996 (7668 obs)) · surprise  96
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.221% daily         (3rd pct, since 2003 (5909 obs)) · surprise  94
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-08)
  level       16.90
  change      +0.77  (+4.8%)  (prior 2026-07-07)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  47th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-08)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       101.050
  change      -0.090  (-0.09%)  (prior 2026-07-07)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  97th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     98.904   price above by +2.17%
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-08)
  level       7482.71
  change      -21.14  (-0.28%)  (prior 2026-07-07)
  1yr range   6225.52 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  93rd pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     6956.33   price above by +7.57%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-08)
  >> BoC   2026-07-15  (7 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 3rd pct)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (15 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 1st pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (21 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 2nd pct), USD/CAD (20d vol 3rd pct)
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (22 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 1st pct)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (23 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 2nd pct)