FX Daily — 2026-07-07

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-07. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-07, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.14418  +0.04%  43.3 (29th)  16.7%  -0.75% (36th)      -4.1% (26th)
GBP/USD  1.33979  +0.34%  57.5 (73rd)  46.2%  +0.48% (57th)      +5.5% (32nd)
USD/JPY  162.088  +0.39%  64.0 (85th)  95.6%  +1.19% (66th)     -26.3% (16th)
USD/CHF  0.80508  +0.16%  56.8 (73rd)  77.9%  +0.87% (67th)      -9.1% (53rd)
AUD/USD  0.69553  +0.26%  43.5 (29th)  62.7%  -1.21% (32nd)     +14.7% (75th)
USD/CAD  1.42078  +0.03%  72.3 (97th)  94.8%  +1.80% (82nd)     -25.4% (26th)
NZD/USD  0.57016  -0.08%  40.8 (23rd)  23.1%  -1.76% (28th)      -22.9% (8th)
EUR/GBP  0.85418  -0.27%   28.1 (1st)   2.6%  -1.20% (24th)      -0.7% (98th)
EUR/HUF  353.017  +0.26%  47.8 (44th)   8.7%  -0.35% (42nd)
USD/HUF  308.823  +0.16%  51.2 (55th)  17.1%  +0.23% (53rd)
GBP/HUF   413.65  +0.50%  57.1 (72nd)  17.3%  +0.78% (60th)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  EUR/GBP  new 52wk intraday low (0.85330)
  EUR/GBP  RSI 28.1 — crossed below 30 (oversold boundary)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  EUR/GBP  RSI(14) 28.14                (1st pct, since 1999 (7140 obs)) · surprise  98
  USD/JPY  20d vol 0.240% daily         (2nd pct, since 1996 (7667 obs)) · surprise  96
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.221% daily         (3rd pct, since 2003 (5908 obs)) · surprise  94
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-07)
  level       16.13
  change      +0.56  (+3.6%)  (prior 2026-07-06)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  28th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-07)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       101.086
  change      +0.236  (+0.23%)  (prior 2026-07-06)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  97th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     98.885   price above by +2.23%
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-07)
  level       7503.85
  change      -33.58  (-0.45%)  (prior 2026-07-06)
  1yr range   6225.52 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  95th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     6952.08   price above by +7.94%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-07)
  >> BoC   2026-07-15  (8 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 3rd pct)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (16 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 1st pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (22 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 2nd pct), USD/CAD (20d vol 3rd pct)
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (23 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 1st pct)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (24 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 2nd pct)