FX Daily — 2026-07-06

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-06. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-06, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.14377  +0.13%  42.7 (27th)  16.1%  -0.74% (37th)      -4.1% (26th)
GBP/USD  1.33531  +0.11%  53.4 (60th)  40.9%  +0.13% (51st)      +5.5% (32nd)
USD/JPY  161.452  +0.00%  57.5 (69th)  91.8%  +0.70% (59th)     -26.3% (16th)
USD/CHF   0.8038  -0.08%  54.9 (68th)  75.6%  +0.93% (68th)      -9.1% (53rd)
AUD/USD   0.6937  +0.30%  40.0 (20th)  60.5%  -1.51% (28th)     +14.7% (75th)
USD/CAD  1.42042  +0.10%  72.0 (96th)  94.3%  +1.86% (83rd)     -25.4% (26th)
NZD/USD   0.5706  +0.23%  41.5 (25th)  23.9%  -1.56% (30th)      -22.9% (8th)
EUR/GBP  0.85649  +0.05%   32.1 (4th)   6.1%  -0.87% (31st)      -0.7% (98th)
EUR/HUF  352.105  -0.15%  45.0 (34th)   6.9%  -0.53% (38th)
USD/HUF  308.316  -0.26%  50.0 (51st)  16.1%  +0.02% (51st)
GBP/HUF   411.61  -0.19%  52.6 (59th)  14.0%  +0.49% (56th)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  EUR/GBP  new 52wk intraday low (0.85453)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  USD/JPY  20d vol 0.229% daily         (1st pct, since 1996 (7666 obs)) · surprise  98
  EUR/GBP  positioning net%OI -0.7%     (98th pct — top of own 131w range) · surprise  96
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.220% daily         (3rd pct, since 2003 (5907 obs)) · surprise  94
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-06)
  level       15.57
  change      -0.36  (-2.3%)  (prior 2026-07-03)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  18th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-06)
  level       100.850
  change      +0.16%  (prior 2026-07-03)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  96th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     98.901   price +1.97%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-06)
  >> BoC   2026-07-15  (9 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 3rd pct)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (17 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI 98th pct — top of own 131w range)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (23 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 1st pct), USD/CAD (20d vol 3rd pct)
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (24 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI 98th pct — top of own 131w range)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (25 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (20d vol 1st pct)