USD/JPY: 20-day volatility 0.260% daily (3rd pct)

On 2026-07-23, USD/JPY closed at 163.081, down 0.06% on the day. It trades at 94.9% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 66.17 is in the 89th percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of +0.81% in the 61st percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -22.7% of open interest, in the 25th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 162.257 / 160.869 / 157.539, with price +0.51% / +1.38% / +3.52% against them. Its 52-week range is 146.217–163.979; it closed 0.55% below the high and 11.53% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.260% daily, in the 3rd percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.685 (68.5 pips), 0.42% of price. It has returned +0.62% over 5 days and +1.81% over 60 days.

=== USD/JPY  (pip 0.01) ===
  >> close 163.081  -0.064%   · 20d vol 0.260% daily (3rd pct, since 1996 (7679 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals split — 20d return up / daily % down
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-23, prior 2026-07-22)
    close       163.081
    change      -0.105  (-0.064%, -10.5 pips)
    gap         -0.118  (-11.8 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-23)
    range       0.985  (98.5 pips)
    close pos   8.8% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-23)
     20d MA     162.257   price above by +0.51%
     50d MA     160.869   price above by +1.38%
    200d MA     157.539   price above by +3.52%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-23)
    20d stdev   0.260% daily ≈ 4.1% annualized (×√252)   (3rd pct of own history, since 1996 (7679 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.44× (0.260% vs 0.591% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-23)
    ATR(14)    0.685  (68.5 pips)
    ATR%        0.42%   (1st pct of own history, since 1996 (7685 obs))
    range/ATR   143.8%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-23)
    high        163.979   (-0.55% from high)
    low         146.217   (+11.53% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-23)
    RSI(14)     66.17   (89th pct of own history, since 1996 (7685 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-23)
     5d return  +0.62%
    20d return  +0.81%
    60d return  +1.81%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.8804%   (from 1996-10-30)
    ZIRP-2009        0.6396%
    tightening-2015  0.5829%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4159%
    tightening-2022  0.6795%
    easing-2024      0.5913%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-21)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -96,185 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
    net % OI    -22.7%
    net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 134w)
    w/w change  -5,724
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-23)
    vs DXY      +0.59
    vs S&P 500  -0.10
    vs DXY beta +0.91 (26w)