USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.220% daily (3rd pct)

On 2026-07-29, USD/CAD closed at 1.41061, down 0.13% on the day. It trades at 81.4% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 52.64 is in the 59th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -0.70% in the 36th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -26.9% of open interest, in the 20th percentile of its own two-year range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.41237 / 1.40372 / 1.38548, with price -0.12% / +0.49% / +1.81% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 0.99% below the high and 4.61% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.220% daily, in the 3rd percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.0056 (56 pips), 0.40% of price. It has returned +0.01% over 5 days and +3.69% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.41061  -0.128%   · 20d vol 0.220% daily (3rd pct, since 2003 (5924 obs))
     cross-signal: flow signals align USD/CAD down: 20d return, daily %
  price & change   (as of 2026-07-29, prior 2026-07-28)
    close       1.41061
    change      -0.00181  (-0.128%, -18.1 pips)
    gap         -0.00160  (-16.0 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-07-29)
    range       0.00313  (31.3 pips)
    close pos   90.4% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-07-29)
     20d MA     1.41237   price below by -0.12%
     50d MA     1.40372   price above by +0.49%
    200d MA     1.38548   price above by +1.81%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-07-29)
    20d stdev   0.220% daily ≈ 3.5% annualized (×√252)   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5924 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.67× (0.220% vs 0.327% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-07-29)
    ATR(14)    0.00560  (56.0 pips)
    ATR%        0.40%   (1st pct of own history, since 2003 (5930 obs))
    range/ATR   55.9%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-07-29)
    high        1.42478   (-0.99% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+4.61% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-07-29)
    RSI(14)     52.64   (59th pct of own history, since 2003 (5930 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-07-29)
     5d return  +0.01%
    20d return  -0.70%
    60d return  +3.69%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.6422%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.5827%
    tightening-2015  0.4850%
    ZIRP-2019        0.4557%
    tightening-2022  0.4399%
    easing-2024      0.3270%
  positioning      (as of 2026-07-21)  (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
    next COT     as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -98,377 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -26.9%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 134w)
    w/w change  -5,606
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-07-29, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-07-29  (today)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-07-29, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-09-02  (35 days)
    differential    +1.38%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-07-29)
    vs DXY      +0.42
    vs S&P 500  -0.26
    vs DXY beta +0.34 (26w)