FX Daily — 2026-07-29

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-29. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-29, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.13865  +0.15%  42.7 (27th)   8.8%  -0.23% (46th)       -7.1% (5th)
GBP/USD  1.32873  -0.02%  43.0 (28th)  33.0%  +0.28% (54th)     +12.7% (52nd)
USD/JPY  163.864  +0.06%  70.2 (94th)  99.4%  +0.76% (60th)     -22.7% (25th)
USD/CHF  0.81946  +0.02%  67.2 (93rd)  98.2%  +1.33% (73rd)      -8.2% (55th)
AUD/USD  0.69746  -0.18%  48.5 (44th)  64.9%  +0.89% (62nd)     +11.0% (67th)
USD/CAD  1.41061  -0.13%  52.6 (59th)  81.4%  -0.70% (36th)     -26.9% (20th)
NZD/USD  0.57822  +0.20%  50.2 (50th)  38.9%  +1.88% (73rd)      -28.6% (0th)
EUR/GBP  0.85689  +0.17%  53.8 (65th)  25.4%  -0.52% (39th)      -0.4% (99th)
EUR/HUF  358.642  -0.09%  52.0 (58th)  19.9%  +1.10% (72nd)
USD/HUF  315.621  -0.23%  55.5 (68th)  33.2%  +1.45% (68th)
GBP/HUF   419.05  -0.33%  50.5 (52nd)  27.3%  +1.67% (72nd)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  USD/JPY  RSI 70.2 — crossed above 70 (overbought boundary)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  NZD/USD  positioning net%OI -28.6%    (0th pct — near bottom of own 134w range (band bottoms at -28.6%)) · surprise 100
  USD/JPY  52wk position 99.4% of range (52wk)                    · surprise  99
  EUR/GBP  positioning net%OI -0.4%     (99th pct — near top of own 134w range (band tops at +0.1%)) · surprise  98
  USD/CHF  52wk position 98.2% of range (52wk)                    · surprise  96
  AUD/USD  20d vol 0.337% daily         (3rd pct, since 2006 (5222 obs)) · surprise  94
  USD/CAD  20d vol 0.220% daily         (3rd pct, since 2003 (5924 obs)) · surprise  94
  EUR/USD  20d vol 0.239% daily         (3rd pct, since 2003 (5846 obs)) · surprise  94
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-29)
  level       20.66
  change      +2.45  (+13.5%)  (prior 2026-07-28)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  84th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-07-29)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       100.800
  change      -0.580  (-0.57%)  (prior 2026-07-28)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  90th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     99.129   price above by +1.69%
DOLLAR CROWDING  (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude)
  5 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week
  EUR/USD  -0.80
  NZD/USD  -0.73
  USD/HUF  +0.71
  GBP/USD  -0.70
  USD/CHF  +0.65
  USD/JPY  +0.60
  EUR/HUF  +0.56
  AUD/USD  -0.51
  GBP/HUF  +0.47
  USD/CAD  +0.42
  EUR/GBP  +0.03
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-07-29)
  level       7316.15
  change      -112.63  (-1.52%)  (prior 2026-07-28)
  1yr range   6238.01 … 7609.78 (252d)
  1yr pctile  78th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     7015.51   price above by +4.29%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-29)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (today)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (20d vol 3rd pct), USD/JPY (52wk position 99.4% of range), USD/CHF (52wk position 98.2% of range), AUD/USD (20d vol 3rd pct), USD/CAD (20d vol 3rd pct), NZD/USD (positioning net%OI 0th pct — near bottom of own 134w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (1 day)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI 99th pct — near top of own 134w range (band tops at +0.1%))
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (2 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (52wk position 99.4% of range)
  >> RBA   2026-08-11  (13 days)   · cross-link: AUD/USD (20d vol 3rd pct)
  >> BoC   2026-09-02  (35 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 3rd pct)
  >> RBNZ  2026-09-02  (35 days)   · cross-link: NZD/USD (positioning net%OI 0th pct — near bottom of own 134w range (band bottoms at -28.6%))
  >> ECB   2026-09-10  (43 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (20d vol 3rd pct), EUR/GBP (positioning net%OI 99th pct — near top of own 134w range (band tops at +0.1%))
  >> SNB   2026-09-24  (57 days)   · cross-link: USD/CHF (52wk position 98.2% of range)