On 2026-07-29, USD/JPY closed at 163.864, up 0.06% on the day. It trades at 99.4% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 70.18 is in the 94th percentile of its history since 1996, and its 20-day return of +0.76% in the 60th percentile. RSI above 70 is conventionally termed overbought. Leveraged-money positioning is net -22.7% of open interest, in the 25th percentile of its own two-year range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 162.604 / 161.268 / 157.796, with price +0.77% / +1.61% / +3.85% against them. Its 52-week range is 146.217–163.979; it closed 0.07% below the high and 12.07% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.265% daily, in the 4th percentile of its history since 1996. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.653 (65.3 pips), 0.40% of price. It has returned +0.42% over 5 days and +3.92% over 60 days.
=== USD/JPY (pip 0.01) ===
>> close 163.864 +0.057% · 52wk position 99.4% of range (52wk)
cross-signal: flow signals align USD/JPY up: 20d return, daily %
price & change (as of 2026-07-29, prior 2026-07-28)
close 163.864
change +0.093 (+0.057%, +9.3 pips)
gap +0.087 (+8.7 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-07-29)
range 0.590 (59.0 pips)
close pos 96.8% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-07-29)
20d MA 162.604 price above by +0.77%
50d MA 161.268 price above by +1.61%
200d MA 157.796 price above by +3.85%
price > all MAs
stack: 20d > 50d > 200d
volatility (as of 2026-07-29)
20d stdev 0.265% daily ≈ 4.2% annualized (×√252) (4th pct of own history, since 1996 (7683 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.45× (0.265% vs 0.590% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-07-29)
ATR(14) 0.653 (65.3 pips)
ATR% 0.40% (0th pct of own history, since 1996 (7689 obs))
range/ATR 90.4%
52-week range (as of 2026-07-29)
high 163.979 (-0.07% from high)
low 146.217 (+12.07% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-07-29)
RSI(14) 70.18 (94th pct of own history, since 1996 (7689 obs))
returns (as of 2026-07-29)
5d return +0.42%
20d return +0.76%
60d return +3.92%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 0.8804% (from 1996-10-30)
ZIRP-2009 0.6396%
tightening-2015 0.5829%
ZIRP-2019 0.4159%
tightening-2022 0.6795%
easing-2024 0.5898%
positioning (as of 2026-07-21) (predates 2026-07-29 FOMC)
next COT as of 2026-07-28 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -96,185 contracts (net short JPY; = long USD in USD/JPY terms)
net % OI -22.7%
net%OI range -33.5% … +10.5% (own 134w)
w/w change -5,724
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-07-29)
vs DXY +0.60
vs S&P 500 -0.12
vs DXY beta +0.75 (26w)