FX Daily — 2026-08-17

FX daily report for reference date 2026-08-17. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT (as of 2026-08-17, config order)
closeday %RSI (pct)52wk20d ret (pct)pos net%OI (band)
EUR/USD1.15739+0.33%61.8 (84th)35.6%+1.28% (72nd)-7.6% (3% of range)
GBP/USD1.35466+0.41%62.2 (85th)64.1%+0.75% (62nd)+15.9% (62% of range)
USD/JPY159.223-0.13%41.9 (23rd)73.2%-2.02% (20th)-13.5% (45% of range)
USD/CHF0.81265-0.18%53.8 (64th)86.4%+0.52% (61st)-10.4% (49% of range)
AUD/USD0.70852+0.30%61.8 (84th)77.5%+1.52% (70th)+18.2% (82% of range)
USD/CAD1.38719-0.40%29.7 (4th)50.8%-1.05% (30th)-25.3% (26% of range)
NZD/USD0.58909+0.62%59.9 (78th)60.2%+0.87% (61st)-34.6% (0% of range)
EUR/GBP0.85436-0.07%45.5 (36th)19.0%+0.53% (63rd)+0.4% (97% of range)
EUR/HUF362.068-0.24%53.3 (62nd)26.6%-0.19% (45th)
USD/HUF312.904-0.53%46.5 (40th)27.4%-1.52% (32nd)
GBP/HUF423.75-0.17%53.5 (61st)35.3%-0.77% (39th)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  USD/CAD  RSI 29.7 — crossed below 30 (oversold boundary)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  NZD/USD  positioning net%OI -34.6%    (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%)) · surprise 100
  EUR/GBP  20d vol 0.147% daily         (0th pct, since 1999 (7163 obs)) · surprise 100
  EUR/USD  positioning net%OI -7.6%     (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)) · surprise  94
  USD/CAD  RSI(14) 29.71                (4th pct, since 2003 (5943 obs)) · surprise  92
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-08-14)
  level       14.25
  change      -0.38  (-2.6%)  (prior 2026-08-13)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  3rd pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-08-14)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       99.670
  change      -0.290  (-0.29%)  (prior 2026-08-13)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  74th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     99.190   price above by +0.48%
DOLLAR CROWDING  (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude)
  6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week
  EUR/USD  -0.84
  GBP/USD  -0.77
  NZD/USD  -0.76
  USD/CHF  +0.71
  USD/HUF  +0.69
  USD/JPY  +0.69
  EUR/HUF  +0.50
  AUD/USD  -0.48
  GBP/HUF  +0.44
  USD/CAD  +0.42
  EUR/GBP  -0.01
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-08-14)
  level       7785.76
  change      -13.23  (-0.17%)  (prior 2026-08-13)
  1yr range   6343.72 … 7798.99 (252d)
  1yr pctile  99th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     7074.90   price above by +10.05%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-08-17)
  >> BoC   2026-09-02  (16 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (RSI(14) 4th pct)
  >> RBNZ  2026-09-02  (16 days)   · cross-link: NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%))
  >> ECB   2026-09-10  (24 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), EUR/GBP (20d vol 0th pct)
  >> Fed   2026-09-16  (30 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), USD/CAD (RSI(14) 4th pct), NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%))
  >> BoE   2026-09-17  (31 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (20d vol 0th pct)