NZD/USD: positioning -34.6%

On 2026-08-17, NZD/USD closed at 0.58909, up 0.62% on the day. It trades at 60.2% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 59.90 is in the 78th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +0.87% in the 61st percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -34.6% of open interest, at 0% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.58478 / 0.5788 / 0.58314, with price +0.74% / +1.78% / +1.02% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 3.32% below the high and 5.49% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.466% daily, in the 14th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00467 (46.7 pips), 0.79% of price. It has returned +0.05% over 5 days and +0.30% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.58909  +0.622%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -34.6% (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%))
     cross-signal: flow signals align NZD/USD up: daily %, 20d return
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-17, prior 2026-08-14)
    close       0.58909
    change      +0.00364  (+0.622%, +36.4 pips)
    gap         +0.00395  (+39.5 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-17)
    range       0.00319  (31.9 pips)  (H−L unaffected by the out-of-range close; only close-position is)
    close pos   n/a (close 3.1 pips below low — async-close artifact)
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-17)
     20d MA     0.58478   price above by +0.74%
     50d MA     0.57880   price above by +1.78%
    200d MA     0.58314   price above by +1.02%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 200d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-17)
    20d stdev   0.466% daily ≈ 7.4% annualized (×√252)   (14th pct of own history, since 2003 (5853 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.79× (0.466% vs 0.592% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-17)
    ATR(14)    0.00467  (46.7 pips)
    ATR%        0.79%   (14th pct of own history, since 2003 (5859 obs))
    range/ATR   68.4%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-17)
    high        0.60933   (-3.32% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+5.49% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-17)
    RSI(14)     59.90   (78th pct of own history, since 2003 (5859 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-17)
     5d return  +0.05%
    20d return  +0.87%
    60d return  +0.30%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.93%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.84%
    tightening-2015  0.64%
    ZIRP-2019        0.61%
    tightening-2022  0.73%
    easing-2024      0.59%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-11)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-18 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -33,461 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -34.6%
    net%OI range -34.6% … +28.5% (own 137w)
    w/w change  -3,171
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (16 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-14, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (30 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-14)
    vs DXY      -0.76
    vs S&P 500  +0.52
    vs DXY beta -1.03 (26w)