On 2026-08-17, USD/CAD closed at 1.38719, down 0.40% on the day. It trades at 50.8% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 29.71 is in the 4th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -1.05% in the 30th percentile. RSI below 30 is conventionally termed oversold. Leveraged-money positioning is net -25.3% of open interest, at 26% of its own two-year positioning range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.40201 / 1.40763 / 1.38527, with price -1.06% / -1.45% / +0.14% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 2.64% below the high and 2.88% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.249% daily, in the 6th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00609 (60.9 pips), 0.44% of price. It has returned -0.57% over 5 days and +0.51% over 60 days.
=== USD/CAD (pip 0.0001) ===
>> close 1.38719 -0.396% · RSI(14) 29.71 (4th pct, since 2003 (5943 obs))
cross-signal: flow signals align USD/CAD down: daily %, 20d return
price & change (as of 2026-08-17, prior 2026-08-14)
close 1.38719
change -0.00552 (-0.396%, -55.2 pips)
gap -0.00569 (-56.9 pips) (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
range (as of 2026-08-17)
range 0.00289 (28.9 pips)
close pos 94.8% of range
moving averages (as of 2026-08-17)
20d MA 1.40201 price below by -1.06%
50d MA 1.40763 price below by -1.45%
200d MA 1.38527 price above by +0.14%
price mixed vs MAs
stack: 50d > 20d > 200d
volatility (as of 2026-08-17)
20d stdev 0.249% daily ≈ 3.9% annualized (×√252) (6th pct of own history, since 2003 (5937 obs))
vs easing-2024 avg 0.76× (0.249% vs 0.326% era avg)
ATR (as of 2026-08-17)
ATR(14) 0.00609 (60.9 pips)
ATR% 0.44% (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5943 obs))
range/ATR 47.4%
52-week range (as of 2026-08-17)
high 1.42478 (-2.64% from high)
low 1.34840 (+2.88% from low)
momentum (as of 2026-08-17)
RSI(14) 29.71 (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5943 obs))
returns (as of 2026-08-17)
5d return -0.57%
20d return -1.05%
60d return +0.51%
volatility by rate-era
pre-crisis 0.64% (from 2003-09-17)
ZIRP-2009 0.58%
tightening-2015 0.48%
ZIRP-2019 0.46%
tightening-2022 0.44%
easing-2024 0.33%
positioning (as of 2026-08-11)
next COT as of 2026-08-18 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
net -92,005 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
net % OI -25.3%
net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 137w)
w/w change +9,743
rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
USD (EFFR) 3.63% (as of 2026-08-14, daily effective)
next Fed 2026-09-16 (30 days)
CAD (BOC_TARGET) 2.25% (as of 2026-08-14, announced target)
next BoC 2026-09-02 (16 days)
differential +1.38% (base−quote)
cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude) (as of 2026-08-14)
vs DXY +0.42
vs S&P 500 -0.34
vs DXY beta +0.29 (26w)