USD/CAD: 20-day volatility 0.228% daily (4th pct)

On 2026-08-18, USD/CAD closed at 1.38697, down 0.02% on the day. It trades at 50.5% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 29.52 is in the 4th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of -1.43% in the 24th percentile. RSI below 30 is conventionally termed oversold. Leveraged-money positioning is net -25.3% of open interest, at 26% of its own two-year positioning range. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 1.401 / 1.40745 / 1.38515, with price -1.00% / -1.46% / +0.13% against them. Its 52-week range is 1.3484–1.42478; it closed 2.65% below the high and 2.86% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.228% daily, in the 4th percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00588 (58.8 pips), 0.42% of price. It has returned -0.46% over 5 days and +0.48% over 60 days.

=== USD/CAD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 1.38697  -0.016%   · 20d vol 0.228% daily (4th pct, since 2003 (5938 obs))
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-18, prior 2026-08-17)
    close       1.38697
    change      -0.00022  (-0.016%, -2.2 pips)
    gap         -0.00024  (-2.4 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-18)
    range       0.00316  (31.6 pips)
    close pos   23.7% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-18)
     20d MA     1.40100   price below by -1.00%
     50d MA     1.40745   price below by -1.46%
    200d MA     1.38515   price above by +0.13%
    price mixed vs MAs
    stack: 50d > 20d > 200d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-18)
    20d stdev   0.228% daily ≈ 3.6% annualized (×√252)   (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5938 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.70× (0.228% vs 0.326% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-18)
    ATR(14)    0.00588  (58.8 pips)
    ATR%        0.42%   (3rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5944 obs))
    range/ATR   53.7%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-18)
    high        1.42478   (-2.65% from high)
    low         1.34840   (+2.86% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-18)
    RSI(14)     29.52   (4th pct of own history, since 2003 (5944 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-18)
     5d return  -0.46%
    20d return  -1.43%
    60d return  +0.48%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.64%   (from 2003-09-17)
    ZIRP-2009        0.58%
    tightening-2015  0.48%
    ZIRP-2019        0.46%
    tightening-2022  0.44%
    easing-2024      0.33%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-11)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-18 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -92,005 contracts (net short CAD; = long USD in USD/CAD terms)
    net % OI    -25.3%
    net%OI range -31.9% … -6.8% (own 137w)
    w/w change  +9,743
  rate differential (USD–CAD policy)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-17, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (29 days)
    CAD (BOC_TARGET)      2.25%  (as of 2026-08-17, announced target)
    next BoC              2026-09-02  (15 days)
    differential    +1.38%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-17)
    vs DXY      +0.40
    vs S&P 500  -0.33
    vs DXY beta +0.28 (26w)