FX daily report for reference date 2026-08-18. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.
| close | day % | RSI (pct) | 52wk | 20d ret (pct) | pos net%OI (band) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.15828 | +0.08% | 62.9 (86th) | 36.9% | +1.44% (74th) | -7.6% (3% of range) |
| GBP/USD | 1.35503 | +0.03% | 62.5 (86th) | 64.5% | +0.88% (64th) | +15.9% (62% of range) |
| USD/JPY | 159.34 | +0.07% | 43.0 (25th) | 73.9% | -1.94% (21st) | -13.5% (45% of range) |
| USD/CHF | 0.81058 | -0.26% | 50.6 (55th) | 82.8% | +0.07% (53rd) | -10.4% (49% of range) |
| AUD/USD | 0.71082 | +0.33% | 65.0 (90th) | 80.2% | +1.53% (70th) | +18.2% (82% of range) |
| USD/CAD | 1.38697 | -0.02% | 29.5 (4th) | 50.5% | -1.43% (24th) | -25.3% (26% of range) |
| NZD/USD | 0.59059 | +0.26% | 62.0 (83rd) | 63.2% | +0.91% (61st) | -34.6% (0% of range) |
| EUR/GBP | 0.85477 | +0.05% | 47.1 (42nd) | 20.1% | +0.58% (65th) | +0.4% (97% of range) |
| EUR/HUF | 363.237 | +0.32% | 56.4 (71st) | 28.9% | +0.53% (62nd) | |
| USD/HUF | 313.785 | +0.28% | 48.9 (48th) | 29.3% | -0.96% (39th) | |
| GBP/HUF | 425.24 | +0.35% | 56.4 (70th) | 37.8% | -0.05% (48th) |
NOTABLE TODAY (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal) NZD/USD positioning net%OI -34.6% (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%)) · surprise 100 EUR/GBP 20d vol 0.147% daily (0th pct, since 1999 (7164 obs)) · surprise 100 EUR/USD positioning net%OI -7.6% (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)) · surprise 94 USD/CAD 20d vol 0.228% daily (4th pct, since 2003 (5938 obs)) · surprise 92
market risk (VIX) (as of 2026-08-17) level 15.19 change +0.94 (+6.6%) (prior 2026-08-14) 1yr range 13.47 … 31.05 (252d) 1yr pctile 13th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY) (as of 2026-08-18) (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below) level 99.650 change +0.010 (+0.01%) (prior 2026-08-17) 1yr range 96.220 … 101.610 (252d) 1yr pctile 73rd pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 99.197 price above by +0.46%
DOLLAR CROWDING (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude) 6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week EUR/USD -0.83 GBP/USD -0.75 NZD/USD -0.75 USD/CHF +0.70 USD/HUF +0.68 USD/JPY +0.67 EUR/HUF +0.51 AUD/USD -0.47 GBP/HUF +0.45 USD/CAD +0.40 EUR/GBP -0.05
equity market (S&P 500) (as of 2026-08-17) level 7745.06 change -40.70 (-0.52%) (prior 2026-08-14) 1yr range 6343.72 … 7798.99 (252d) 1yr pctile 98th pctile (252d lookback) 200d MA 7079.17 price above by +9.41%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) === (days remaining from reference date 2026-08-18) >> BoC 2026-09-02 (15 days) · cross-link: USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct) >> RBNZ 2026-09-02 (15 days) · cross-link: NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%)) >> ECB 2026-09-10 (23 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), EUR/GBP (20d vol 0th pct) >> Fed 2026-09-16 (29 days) · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), USD/CAD (20d vol 4th pct), NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%)) >> BoE 2026-09-17 (30 days) · cross-link: EUR/GBP (20d vol 0th pct)